Once-in-4,800-Year Shock Is Bond Market’s Cold Case Two Years On
- Regulators say market safer now than before 2014 flash rally
- Analysts say next sudden swing could be even more extreme
The U.S. Treasury building is shown in Washington, D.C.
Photographer: Joshua Roberts/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Two years since a burst of unprecedented volatility shook the $13.7 trillion U.S. Treasuries market, regulators still haven’t worked out what triggered it, let alone how to prevent a recurrence.
The Oct. 15, 2014 flash rally saw yields move by almost -- analogous to an event that should occur about one day every 4,800 years. A 2015 report by five government agencies found no smoking gun, and with insufficient data on trading at the time of the surge and then slump in Treasuries prices, the trail is running cold.