We've Been Looking for Credit Excesses in All the Wrong Places
UBS sounds the alarm on non-bank lending.
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Don't look at banks or the bond market to get a sense of when the credit cycle is turning or how bad the ensuing bust will be, according to UBS AG.
"There has been a significant and, in our view, structural contraction in supply for all borrowers aside from U.S. high grade entities," wrote Strategist Matthew Mish, pointing to the declines in gross issuance in Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. high yield corporate debt.