To Find Top Currency Forecaster, Skip London and Head to Warsaw

  • TMS Brokers led in Bloomberg rankings followed by Saxo, NBF
  • Poland-based firm among top forecasters of Aussie, sterling

Euro banknotes.

Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
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Konrad Bialas, part of the most accurate currency forecasting team in the past year, bolsters the mathematical and political variables in his economic models with an extra consideration: Murphy’s Law.

From the 80-person headquarters of TMS Brokers in Warsaw’s financial district, Bialas’s four-person research group was the best overall forecaster of major currencies in the 12 months through September, according to Bloomberg rankingsBloomberg Terminal of 61 firms. TMS was also among the top four predictors among seven exchange rates, including the Australian dollar and the British pound.