The Definitive H&H Chris Christie Scouting Report

What he’s got: The biggest, brusquest, most boisterous personality in the GOP field; unparalleled political brawling skills; executive experience as two-term governor of New Jersey; a set of first-term accomplishments, working his will with/over his state’s Democratic legislature, to score victories on taxes, budgets, and pension reform; demonstrated ability to win election in a deep-blue state with strong support from Hispanic and African-American voters; a potentially potent national donor network; a substantial, growing, serious-minded policy agenda; high name recognition; regular-guy relatability; media savvy galore; and a ready sense of humor (including a capacity, when it suits him, for self-deprecation).

What he lacks: Polling strength nationally, in the early-voting states, or at home, where his approval rating has dipped to 30 percent; with indictments issued and investigations ongoing, ability to put Bridgegate behind him fully; a convincing explanation for his state’s fiscal and economic woes (nine credit-rating downgrades since he took office, an unemployment rate one full point above the national average, a derisory 0.4 percent growth rate in 2014) in spite of those first-term wins; notable or broad backing from the sort of establishment Republicans who once pined for him to run; a path to the nomination that doesn’t require winning New Hampshire; national-security credentials; consistent calibration of his trademark outbursts so that they come across as candid and refreshing rather than arrogant and obnoxious.