The Poll Numbers Hillary Clinton and Democrats Should Really Be Worrying About
Hillary Rodham Clinton, former United States Secretary of State, U.S. Senator, and First Lady of the United States, speaks during the presentation of the German translation of her book 'Hard Choices' ('Entscheidungen' in German) at the Staatsoper in the Schiller Theater on July 6, 2014 in Berlin, Germany.
Photo by Adam Berry/Getty ImagesThe political terrain, the quality of the two party’s respective candidates, and the campaigns they run will decide the 2016 presidential contest. Higher presidential election year turnout and changing demographics—in which groups that perform well for Democrats are growing as a proportion of the electorate and groups that perform well for Republicans are shrinking as a proportion of the electorate—help the Democrats. In addition, some advantages with electoral college math and a general movement in the country toward more liberal attitudes on gay marriage and the environment all give Democrats confidence that the general terrain in 2016 will be to their advantage.
When is comes to judgments about potential or likely nominees, with the release of polls yesterday by ABC News/Washington Post and CNN, a lot of attention was paid to Hillary Clinton’s weakening favorability ratings and lower assessment of her on some key traits. As we discussed yesterday, those changes, especially among independents and on issues of empathy, are worth keeping an eye on.