The Poll Numbers Hillary Clinton and Democrats Should Really Be Worrying About

How the country views the current president could ultimately have the greatest bearing on the 2016 race.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, former United States Secretary of State, U.S. Senator, and First Lady of the United States, speaks during the presentation of the German translation of her book 'Hard Choices' ('Entscheidungen' in German) at the Staatsoper in the Schiller Theater on July 6, 2014 in Berlin, Germany.

Photo by Adam Berry/Getty Images

The political terrain, the quality of the two party’s respective candidates, and the campaigns they run will decide the 2016 presidential contest. Higher presidential election year turnout and changing demographics—in which groups that perform well for Democrats are growing as a proportion of the electorate and groups that perform well for Republicans are shrinking as a proportion of the electorate—help the Democrats. In addition, some advantages with electoral college math and a general movement in the country toward more liberal attitudes on gay marriage and the environment all give Democrats confidence that the general terrain in 2016 will be to their advantage.

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