The Impossible Republican Dream: A Sneaky California Senate Win
Senator Barbara Boxer, a Democrat from California, center, speaks during a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee markup meeting on reauthorization legislation for highway and transit programs in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, May 15, 2014.
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergThe retirement of California Senator Barbara Boxer has sparked a small flame of hope for some ambitious conservatives. The theory goes like this: Considering California's top-two runoff system, the GOP should recruit two (but only two) strong candidates in 2016. Democrats, salivating over the first open Senate seat since 1992, may crowd the field. If the two Republicans narrowly get more votes than each Democrat–they get 20 and 19 percent, say, as the Democrats bunch up in the teens–then the majority party can be completely shut out.
"If one and only one Republican makes this race, he or she is almost certain of a runoff slot," wrote Thomas Elias this week in the Californian. "And if a slew of Democrats get in against two Republicans, both Republicans could advance to November, guaranteeing the GOP an improbable Senate seat for six years."