What's Behind the Recession's Birth Dearth

The latest recession left the U.S. with its lowest fertility rate on record. Before the economy contracted in 2007, the U.S. produced 69.3 babies per 1,000 fertile-age women, enough to keep the population stable. According to the latest data from the National Center for Health Statistics, in 2013 they had just 62.5 babies, below the replacement rate. If this isn’t a temporary blip associated with the weak economy, the American population will start to shrink.

Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, estimates that “if 2007 birth trends had stayed on track we’d have 2.3 million more babies. … It was a much higher number than I expected.” The recent baby bust is notable because it was mostly attributable to young Hispanic women who are legal U.S. residents. Until recently, they were largely responsible for maintaining the U.S.’s population. In 2007, Hispanic females accounted for 17 percent of women age 15 to 44, but they produced 25 percent of babies. Hispanic fertility plummeted during the recession. Their fertility rate fell a third, a drop that accounts for 56 percent of the recession’s decline in babies. Hispanic birthrates are now closer to those of whites and blacks.