Ebola Travel Bans Buy Only Time, Not Safety

Last week Canada stopped issuing visas to travelers from the three West African countries battling Ebola, echoing a decision Australia made days earlier. The new policies are the biggest travel restrictions yet from wealthy countries. They are intended to keep the virus from spreading, and they probably won’t work.

Blocking most travel from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where a total of more than 13,000 people have been infected with Ebola since the outbreak began in March, would only modestly reduce how long it takes for the virus to reach new countries, according to mathematical simulations published in the journal Eurosurveillance. For example, stopping 71 percent of travelers from entering other nations in Africa from the three countries in which Ebola is widespread would delay a case from appearing elsewhere on the continent by only 30 days, according to the model.