Beware Overfitting Models Even If They Win Baseball Bets
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It was the middle of Game 6 of the World Series and the Kansas City Royals were clobbering the San Francisco Giants, when Melanie Winograd made a bold prediction.
“According to our stats, we think the Giants are going to take” the series, she wrote in an e-mail while the Royals were en route to a 10-0 rout of the Giants.