China-Hong Kong Data Mismatch Narrows: Chart of the Day

The mismatch between bilateral trade data reported by Hong Kong and China has narrowed in the last year, signaling that efforts to stop fake invoices worked and China’s April exports may have risen more than figures showed.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows a ratio of China’s monthly exports to Hong Kong based on data from the General Administration of Customs in Beijing, and the city’s imports from the mainland as reported by the Census and Statistics Department. In theory, the ratio should be at parity, and it averaged 1.03 for the six years starting in 2005, Bloomberg calculations show. It’s been skewed toward China every month in the past four years, including a record high 2.36 in March 2013, prompting skepticism from many analysts. The lower panel shows the reported data in millions of U.S. dollars.