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China Leverage Seen Rising Through 2016

China’s debt is poised to keep expanding faster than the economy through at least 2016, testing the limits of a credit-driven growth model that’s already exceeded the imbalances in Japan before its lost decade.

The combined ratio of government, corporate and household debt to gross domestic product is set to climb to 236.5 percent in 2016 from 225 percent last year, based on median estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and analysts. Asked when the ratio will peak over the next decade, the largest proportion of respondents said 2018 or 2019.