Time Is Running Out for Thailand's Embattled Government

Will they or won’t they? Thais are waiting to hear whether elections scheduled for Feb. 2 will take place as planned. Embattled Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra wants them to take place; the country’s Election Commission wants a postponement because of widespread opposition from critics of Yingluck and her exiled brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The country’s Constitutional Court ruled Jan. 24 that the election can be delayed and that both the prime minister and the Election Commission have the power and responsibility to set a new date “if holding the election as scheduled will create serious damage to the country,”

Regardless of whether the election takes place in February or later, chances are Yingluck’s days as prime minister are numbered. “The current political deadlock should eventually lead to the fall of this government,” Pimpaka Nichgaroon, head of research in Bangkok for Thanachart Securities, wrote in a report published Wednesday. While the crisis may drag on for a few more weeks, Pimpaka expects a resolution by the end of March. “We assign the highest probability to military intervention followed by court cases in bringing down the government and a slim chance of the caretaker administration returning as a functional government in the next election.”