Palm Oil Extends Rally to Eight-Month High on Supply Concerns

Palm climbed to the highest level in eight months on speculation that output in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, will drop starting next month because of growing cycles and the beginning of the monsoon season.

The contract for delivery in January advanced 1.8 percent to 2,543 ringgit ($807) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the highest level at close for most-active futures since Feb. 20. Palm for physical delivery in November was at 2,540 ringgit, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While palm oil is produced year-round, output peaks from July to October, before tapering. Prices are heading for a 9.6 percent gain this month, the most since December 2010, on expectation that the monsoon season that usually begins in November would slow production. The 14-day relative strength index for futures was at 72.8, the highest since Aug. 28. Some traders see readings above 70 as a sign that a drop is imminent.

“The market does look a little bit overbought,” said Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research Pte in Singapore. “It could stay overbought for a while, before we have another spate of news which could justify taking profits.”

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are predicted over Sabah, Sarawak and Johor, the biggest palm oil producing states, according to a seven-day outlook on the Malaysian Meteorological Department’s website.

Refined palm oil for May delivery jumped 3.7 percent to close at 6,332 yuan ($1,039) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and soybean oil climbed 2.2 percent to 7,214 yuan.

Soybeans for delivery in January advanced 0.5 percent to $12.7675 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, while soybean oil for December gained 1.2 percent to 41.47 cents a pound.

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