World’s Record Wheat Crop Seen Bigger by AMIS, Corn to ReboundRudy Ruitenberg
Global wheat production, already seen climbing to a record, will be higher than predicted last month on good prospects in all major growers except the U.S., according to the Agricultural Market Information System.
Farmers worldwide will reap 704 million metric tons of the grain in 2013-14 from 659 million tons in 2012-13, according to an online report from Rome-based AMIS, which was set up by Group of 20 countries. The outlook was raised by 2 million tons.
Wheat traded in Chicago, a global benchmark, fell 15 percent this year on a rebound in production after drought cut harvests across the Northern Hemisphere last year. The European Union, the biggest grower, today forecast a wheat harvest of 138.8 million tons this year from 134.3 million tons in 2012.
“Bigger harvests are expected to result in a significant increase in world cereal stocks,” AMIS wrote. “More ample supplies could result in lower and more stable prices in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13.’”
Wheat estimates were raised for the EU and the countries in the former Soviet Union, according to Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization who helps compile the AMIS report.
Wheat stockpiles may climb to 169 million tons from 162 million tons in 2012-13, with the outlook for inventories at the end of the season cut by 4 million tons on lower beginning stocks and increased consumption, according to the report.
Global corn production is predicted to jump to 972 million tons from 874 million tons, 9 million tons more than forecast last month on higher forecast for Argentina and Brazil. Consumption will rise to 931 million tons from 884 million tons on higher feed and industrial use, AMIS said.
Corn ending stocks in 2013-14 may expand to 175 million tons from 136 million tons, the report showed.
The global rice crop may be 500 million tons from 491 million tons in 2012-13, lifting ending stocks of the grain to 182 million tons from 174 million tons, according to the report, which left the stocks estimate unchanged from June.