U.K. Within-Day Natural Gas Jumps to One-Year High on WeatherMatthew Brown
U.K. natural gas for same-day delivery jumped to the highest level in more than a year as temperatures fell, boosting demand to a one-month high as Norwegian flows dropped.
Within-day gas surged as much as 17 percent, the biggest intraday gain since April, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. Demand in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. tomorrow was predicted at 372 million cubic meters, the most since Jan. 24 and above the seasonal normal of 303 million, National Grid Plc data show. Flows from Norway, the U.K.’s biggest source of imported gas, were at 91 million cubic meters a day versus a 10-day average of 111 million, Gassco AS data show.
Gas for today gained 12.05 pence to 81 pence a therm, the most since Feb. 10, 2012, before trading at 74 pence at 4:36 p.m. London time. Next-month gas advanced 0.2 percent to 67.05 pence a therm. That’s equivalent to $10.23 per million British thermal units and compares with $3.25 per million Btu of front-month U.S. gas.
The average temperature in the U.K. will be 0.3 degrees Celsius (32 Fahrenheit) at 6 p.m. London time, according to MetraWeather data on Bloomberg using the GFS model. The previous estimate was for 0.8 degrees, the data show.
Statoil ASA said Norwegian flows were cut by 14.7 million cubic meters a day in two separate cases of unplanned maintenance.
System flows reached 399 million cubic meters a day, the most since Feb. 14, grid data show. The delivery system will contain 350 million cubic meters of gas at 6 a.m. tomorrow, little changed from 24 hours earlier, the data show.
Gas accounted for 36 percent of U.K. power production at 4:35 p.m., grid data show. Coal generated 40 percent, nuclear 16 percent and wind 3.2 percent.
Wind generation will peak at 1,343 megawatts tomorrow after reaching 2,097 today, Bloomberg calculations show. It reached a record 5,082 megawatts Feb. 3, grid data show.
Electricity for the next working day rose 5.4 percent to 54 pounds a megawatt-hour, broker data show.