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The Little-Known Pollster That Bested All the Others

The Little-Known Pollster That Bested All the Others
Photograph by Tom Grill

The venerated Gallup Poll took a beating this year for being such an outlier in its predictions of who would win the presidency, and the New York Times’s Nate Silver has now served up further evidence that the firm has lost its mojo. Silver analyzed the results obtained by about two dozen top polling firms that ran multiple surveys in the last three weeks of the campaign and then ranked the pollsters based on their accuracy: Gallup came in dead last, with an average error of 7.2 points compared to the actual results.

What pollster nailed its predictions? A firm you probably haven’t heard of: TIPP Online, which conducts polls for Investor’s Business Daily. By Silver’s count, TIPP’s average error was just .9 points.