Bloomberg View: Don't Let a Jobs Report Elect a President

Early voters fill out their ballots as they cast their vote in the presidential election on the first day of early voting in Miami, FloridaPhotograph by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

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November 2, 2012 at 3:11 AM UTC

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This article is part of the November 5, 2012 issue of businessweek.

Would you let a random-number generator decide the next U.S. president? Something like that could occur following the Nov. 2 release of the government’s monthly jobs report. The change in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate are front-page news in a nation searching for signs of recovery. A surprise of even 50,000 jobs can move markets. A big payroll number could tip the outcome in favor of President Obama. A poor report could be just what Mitt Romney needs to convince the nation it’s time for a change.

It’s bizarre that the jobs numbers wield so much influence, given that they often bear little relation to economic reality. The fact is, it’s difficult to measure in real time how many jobs the economy has produced in a month. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates the change in nonfarm payrolls, for example, it’s trying to pin down a tiny shift—a matter of thousands of jobs—in a labor pool of more than 130 million.