Eight Market Gurus Fill in the Blanks
Robert Shiller, Economist and Professor, Yale University, Co-Creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
What do you make of the good news coming out of housing?
Well, it’s very hard to say. The problem is, I think that we’ve entered a new regime. We don’t have that much history. We had the biggest bubble in U.S. history, and we don’t know what to think about the aftermath of bubbles like that. We’ve come back down. People don’t know what real home prices have done. They think that they’ve trended upward all the time, but actually we’re kind of back at 1890 levels. So we haven’t had any up. … I’d have to look, whether it’s up a little bit from 1890. But if it’s up, the return is only a 0.1 percent per year or less, I think.
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