China Struggles to Publish Accurate Economic Data

The figures that go into China’s gross domestic product are “man-made” and “for reference only,” warned Chinese politician Li Keqiang back in 2007. The comments by the then-regional party head, who is expected to become premier next spring, were revealed in a diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks in late 2010. Li’s remarks are especially relevant now as Chinese officials are expected to announce on July 13 that GDP grew by less than 8 percent in the second quarter, a three-year low.

But how low exactly? Investors, bankers, and economists face a host of difficulties in interpreting the numbers from China’s statistics bureau. Combine all officially reported provincial GDP numbers for last year and you come up with a total exceeding national GDP by about 10 percent, Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in February. Ma said that is due partly to double counting of activities like factory production, and that his bureau was trying to correct the problem.