A Must-Read for Venezuelan Bond Traders

Investors left in the dark by Hugo Chávez’s battle with cancer are turning to a political gossip columnist for insight. Nelson Bocaranda, who writes a twice-weekly column in the Caracas-based El Universal newspaper, last June revealed that Chávez had cancer five days before the Venezuelan president announced that doctors in Cuba had removed a tumor from his pelvic area. On Feb. 20, the columnist blogged on Twitter that Chávez had secretly traveled to Cuba and needed to undergo further surgery. “The decision whether to operate is a difficult one,” tweeted Bocaranda. The unsourced speculation, at first denied by Chávez allies, was confirmed by the president a day later.

Chávez, who said in October he was cancer-free following two operations and four rounds of chemotherapy, has refused to say what kind of cancer he has or allow access to his medical records. With Chávez’s health a state secret, Bocaranda has become essential reading for investors, says Boris Segura, a strategist at Nomura Securities International. “He’s very well-connected, very well-informed, and you’ve got to read him,” he says.