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No Consensus on Chinese Stocks With Guotai Seeing 36% Gain

Even after a two-year bear market wiped 33 percent from China’s benchmark stock index, there’s no consensus on the direction in equity prices this year among the nation’s biggest and most accurate brokerage firms.

The Shanghai Composite Index will gain 36 percent because slowing inflation will let policy makers cut interest rates and bank reserves, according to Zhang Han, a strategist at Guotai Junan Securities Co., the only major brokerage to foresee the slump. China International Capital Corp., led by the son of a former premier, forecasts a “slight” drop since the economy isn’t slowing enough to permit “aggressive” reductions in borrowing costs, said Hao Hong, CICC’s global equity strategist.