Tom Keene Talks to Allen Sinai
Why should Americans worry about what’s going on in Europe?
Europe could be in severe recession. It’s in a classic credit crunch as the values of the assets and the institutions keep going down. Why would anybody want to hold the debt of euro zone countries like Italy or Spain that is so compromised and of countries that may become insolvent because business is so bad? It’s a really historic moment.
We are remarkably more linked than we may perceive.
It is extraordinary, the linkage of globalization, plus the way technology works in the financial markets.
What about the U.S.?
We are looking at what we think is a consumer who is getting more lively. And we actually think that will be sustained—a little more jobs, a little more income, a little more spending, a little more confidence. In back of it all is a significant improvement in household financial conditions compared to where we were. This is not optimal. We are not back to normal times. But the motion is good.
Is that enough to create 200,000 jobs a month?
I think that is a little high, but we could do 150,000 jobs a month.
That doesn’t get it done, does it?
No, it doesn’t. But depending on the labor force, we will still, I think, get the unemployment rate down close to 8 percent by the end of next year.