Can the U.S. Export Its Way Out of the Slump?

Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley, are touting a bright spot in the economic data: rising global demand for U.S. products. Both cited the increase in exports as one reason they are forecasting a rebound in the second half of the year.

While U.S. job growth flags, the housing market struggles, and consumer confidence declines, exports have climbed in the past two years and accounted for a record 13.4 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter. That compares with a decade low of 9.2 percent in the second quarter of 2003, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. “I don’t think the export piece is enough to be a cure-all, but it could certainly be a help at the margin,” says Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities in Stamford, Conn.