When Debt Stifles Growth

As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there’s considerable debate about the urgency of taming deficits with the aim of stabilizing and ultimately reducing debt as a percentage of gross domestic product. Our empirical research on the history of financial crises and the relationship between growth and public liabilities supports the view that current debt trajectories are a risk to long-term growth and stability, with many advanced economies already reaching or exceeding the important marker of 90 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, many prominent public intellectuals continue to argue that debt phobia is wildly overblown. Countries such as the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. aren’t like Greece and the market doesn’t treat them as such.

Indeed, there is a growing perception that today’s low interest rates for the debt of advanced economies offer a compelling reason to begin another round of massive fiscal stimulus. If Asian nations are spinning off huge excess savings partly as a byproduct of measures such as restrictions that effectively force low-income savers to put their money in bank accounts with low government-imposed interest rate ceilings—why not take advantage of the cheap money?