Analyst Who Called Recession End Sees Durable Rebound

Economist Thomas Lam, who accurately forecast 16 months ago when the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression would end, now says chances of a renewed slump in the coming year are no more than 20 percent.

“The main risk to the U.S. economy today is really a prolonged period of mild growth rather than an imminent recession,” said Lam, the Singapore-based chief economist at OSK-DMG, a joint venture between Malaysian securities firm OSK Holdings Bhd. and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG.