Jackson Hole Debate on Recession Risk Shows Bernanke Challenge

Economists who decide when recessions begin and end in the U.S. are divided over the odds of a renewed downturn, underscoring the challenge faced by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke as he vows the Fed “will do all that it can” to sustain growth.

“There’s still a significant risk, maybe one chance in three, that there will be a double dip,” said Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who sits on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Fellow panel member and Princeton University Professor Mark Watson said those odds are “way too high” and puts them instead at “one in 10 or maybe one in 20.”