The Next Economics Nobelist: Model Maker Or Storyteller?

Few economists are willing to speculate in public about who will win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science, to be announced on Oct. 12. But each year, David Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, collects Nobel predictions from 100 faculty and graduate students. This year's votes are not in yet, but the top choices in last year's survey were Gary Becker, the 1992 winner and a BUSINESS WEEK columnist; Edmond Malinvaud of France; and Amartya K. Sen, now at Harvard University.

The prize will mean prestige and $850,000 for the winner, whether it is Malinvaud, Sen, or another economist (table). But more important, the Nobel committee's choice may indicate whether economists will continue to rely on mathematical models or shift their focus to economic history and institutions.