Now, Fault Lines Split Russia Itself

Like the former Soviet Union before it, Russia itself is now in danger of splitting apart. Frustrated by the political chaos in Moscow and angered at growing economic malaise, the mosaic of the 88 political subdivisions that make up the Russian Federation is beginning to take charge. Localities and regions are seizing control over their own oil reserves and precious metals. They're challenging Moscow's role as tax collector and policy dictator. Some energetic local leaders are moving even faster than President Boris Yeltsin had planned to privatize state companies. At the same time, conservative leaders in other areas are pulling in precisely the opposite direction.

These centrifugal forces could gain speed should Yeltsin lose big in a national referendum on Apr. 25 and resign. But even if he wins and stays in power, he could be caught up in the same tornado of intense change that brought about the demise of Mikhail Gorbachev and the Soviet Union. The critical question facing a victorious Yeltsin will be whether he can shrewdly forge policies that empower the regions while leaving a central government with real authority. "The only way forward is decentralization," says economist Grigory Yavlinsky, a former Gorbachev adviser. "But what we have now is disintegration--a chaotic, unmanageable, even criminal decentralization."