Will Mad Ave. Start Seeing Heavy Traffic Again?

The major factors behind the dramatic slowdown in advertising outlays that has hit the ad industry and print and broadcast media this year are hardly a mystery (BW-Sept. 23). The culprits include the recession, which has sharply cut spending by debt-burdened consumers and businesses; the public's growing price-consciousness; and a turn toward targeted marketing made possible by computerized market research.

Less noticed but no less significant, however, is a demographic shift that is exacerbating the current advertising slump. In an article in the September issue of American Demographics, economist Martin Fleming of Cahners Publishing Co. notes that growth of the number of households headed by someone aged 35 to 44 is starting to slow appreciably. Such households increased 27% in the 1970s and a startling 47% in the 1980s, as the baby boomers moved past their middle 30s. In the 1990s, by contrast, the number will rise just 15%.