Turkey

President Turgut Ozal hopes to parlay Ankara's support for the war against Saddam Hussein into an active role in reshaping Iraq's postwar political structure. Ozal wants to head off independence moves by Iraq's Kurdish minority for fear that Turkey's 12 million Kurds might try to follow suit. Instead, Ozal proposes a postwar confederation in Iraq of Arabs, Kurds, and a small minority of ethnic Turks--guaranteed by Turkey, Syria, and Iran.

By showing solidarity with the West, Ozal also aims to improve prospects for Turkey's bid to join the European Community. However, he is running the risk of creating political instability at home, where Islamic fundamentalists have been leading violent antiwar protests. In late January, Ozal lifted a ban on speaking the Kurdish language. This is one of several reforms intended to meet EC objections that Turkey isn't democratic enough. But it is also likely to reinforce Kurdish nationalism.