Strange 100 Days

What's Missing From Trump Rally? Trump Stocks

The market has risen, but not in ways many had expected.
At Closing, April 20st
165.72 USD

Among Donald Trump's accomplishments in his first 100 days, even critics may have a hard time quibbling with this one: He's made most investors better off.

Companies in the S&P 500 index have added nearly $984 billion in market cap since Inauguration Day. Since Election Day, it's just more than $2 trillion. The Trump 100-day stock rally, a jump of 5.8 percent, ranks him fifth best among modern day presidents in percentage terms, two behind Obama's first term. Based on market cap, Trump is even better, edging out the Bush '88 and Obama  '08 terms. Factoring in inflation, Kennedy and Roosevelt still have Trump beat.

But while stocks have certainly risen under Trump, in many ways the rise has not looked all that in line with Trumponomics. Put another way, it does not appear that Trump, or his policies, are influencing the market in areas many might expect.

Tech Drives a Rally

Performance of the S&P 500 and component sectors since Donald Trump took office

Source: Bloomberg

Consider Apple. As a candidate, Trump threatened to punish the iPhone maker if it didn't "start building their damn computers and things" in the U.S. In the wake of the San Bernardino shooting, Trump called for a boycott of Apple if it didn't unlock the shooter's phone. And yet, Apple is the No. 1 performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since Trump took office, adding nearly $122 billion in market cap.

In fact, technology stocks in general turned out to be the best performers in Trump's first 100 days. Silicon Valley was far from pro-Trump, and the president's anti-immigration stance was seen as a negative for tech recruiting. Some have said that Trump's actual policies have been less unfriendly to the tech sector than feared, but being less of a negative is hardly delivering on a campaign promise. Nonetheless, the tech stocks in the S&P 500 have risen nearly $469 billion in market value since Trump was elected, or nearly 50 percent of the index's overall gains.

What's more, many of the sectors that Trump championed and said he would revitalize have been lackluster in his first 100 days. Shares of the big automakers have lost $8 billion in market cap. Industrial stocks are up, but by just $66 billion, making up only 6.7 percent of the Trump 100-day rally. Coal company stocks have mostly fallen. Shares of Arch Coal, for instance, have dropped 4.4 percent since Trump's inauguration.

Winners and Losers

Increase in market cap of major sectors of the S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg

As for the banks, after attacking them as a candidate, Trump as a president has said that he would roll back regulations on Wall Street, which would bolster its profits. But banks, too, haven't been stellar performers in Trump's 100-day rally. The S&P 500 Financials Index is up $47 billion, and most of that gain came in the first 50 days. Bank shares were basically flat in the second half of Trump's first 100 days. And that's the pattern for most of the  market as well. The powerful Trump rally was more like a peep in the second act.

What's more, when it comes to the market, Trump is not even putting putting America first again. While the U.S. stock market did well in his first 100 days, foreign stock markets, particularly of countries that Trump's has singled out, have done even better. Major indexes in Hong Kong, Germany, Mexico and Taiwan are all up more than the U.S. stock market.

America Not First

Performance of global stock indexes since Inauguration Day

Source: Bloomberg

Trump, on more than one occasion, has trumpeted the market rise since his election as proof that investors are reacting positively to his policies. But while stocks certainly have risen, how much credit he deserves is less clear.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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    Stephen Gandel in New York at

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    Daniel Niemi at

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