Greek Bond Drama Meets Realpolitik

Monday’s meeting of European finance ministers looks like the last chance for some form of agreement on the next leg of Greece's 86 billion euro ($91.4 billion) bailout, before Dutch and French election complicate negotiations. Anything can still go wrong with seemingly unsolvable differences between the European authorities, the International Monetary Fund, and the Greeks.

The worries are certainly reflected in the sharp selloff of Greece's 2 billion euro bond maturing July 2017. As befits a serious credit event, Greece's yield curve has inverted, where soon-to-mature debt yields rise above those for longer-dated bonds, reflecting the view that if Greece can make it past the next couple of years it is more likely to make it in the longer term.