Can Trump Deliver on His Promises? These 12 Metrics Will Tell Us
How the 47th president leads the US on inflation, immigration and other areas will help define his legacy. These data points show where the country stands — and where he could take it.
The true implications of President Donald Trump’s first month in office have been obscured by a flurry of executive orders, chaos in the actual business of running government due to Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” and, of course, a steady stream of social media posts.
Will the newly minted DOGE slash and lay off enough to make up the almost $2 trillion needed to balance the federal budget? Or will spending cuts hobble critical programs, such as Medicaid, and raise unemployment? Will stocks soar on deregulation or crack under the weight of a trade war and policy uncertainty? And how will all that affect inflation?
Bloomberg Opinion columnists analyzed 12 metrics to cut through the noise and lay out the challenges and opportunities Trump faces as he works to deliver on the promises that carried him to victory. The analysis, in both text and below, shares a consistent approach. For each issue, we focus on data points that best measure success, failure or something in the middle.
This is where Trump 2.0 begins; future updates will tell the story of how it — and the nation — fare.
Job market uncertainty is growing
Anemic hiring and government cutbacks may be a toxic combination
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Trump is inheriting an economy where a record stretch of job creation has left just 4% of the labor force unemployed, a rate most presidents would be thrilled with. Wage growth is also outpacing inflation, helping many households claw back the purchasing power they lost in recent years. Yet the labor market is showing cracks, which could widen with government cutbacks.
Layoffs are currently rare outside the federal government’s downsizing efforts, but the hiring rate, at 3.4% as of December, is among the lowest of the past decade. Resignations have plummeted in a sign that people are clinging to current roles, even if they’re unhappy. The companies that have been staffing up tend to operate in acyclical sectors, including health care and the government, and even those idiosyncratic growth stories may not last.
Trump needs to keep near its current level but grease the wheels of the labor market so that young people and unemployed workers can get their footing. He also needs to keep nominal wages increasing faster than inflation.
Unfortunately, executives aren’t sure what to make of the president’s policies. While new tariffs are supposed to protect US manufacturing jobs, they may have opposite effects: tangling supply chains, driving up costs and hurting profitability. It’s also unclear which policies are serious and which are negotiating tactics, potentially paralyzing at least some executives responsible for investment and hiring decisions.
Meanwhile, Trump and Musk, his efficiency czar, have been scouring federal payrolls for downsizing opportunities. The moves may push unemployment higher if the private sector struggles to immediately absorb laid-off workers. Future phases of the Trump agenda — namely, deregulation and tax cuts — should be more labor-market friendly. The risk is that it will be too little, too late and that any rise in unemployment may be hard to arrest once it’s begun.
Do you have questions about where the labor market may be headed under Trump? Jonathan Levin will be live here to answer your questions Wednesday, March 5, at 10 a.m. EST.
Sliding energy costs are rarely a good sign
Halving prices — as Trump promised — usually takes a disaster
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Trump’s pledge to cut energy costs by half within a year dovetailed rhetorically with his attacks on inflation under former President Joe Biden and his mantra of “energy dominance.” His challenge is that the promise doesn’t dovetail with reality.
In real terms, aren’t actually that high, despite Trump’s declaration of an energy emergency: Gasoline, other fuels and utility bills swallowed an average 3.4% of disposable personal income in December. That’s far below levels during actual energy crises of the past and lower than the average across Trump’s first term, which included a pandemic-related crash in energy consumption and prices.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Such disasters, along with recessions, do occasionally cause pump prices, the most prominent energy cost for most Americans, to plunge suddenly — but they hardly benefit the presiding government, as Trump learned in his first term.
Getting producers to “drill, baby, drill” also requires higher, not lower, prices. The president’s other plans for more gas-export terminals, as well as threatened tariffs on Canadian and Mexican energy, tend to raise prices, too. These contradictions convey the shallowness of Trump’s pledge, and history shows that actually delivering on it would involve unsavory outcomes that would be welcomed by neither drillers nor drivers.
As for electricity and gas, about half of monthly bills relate to relatively fixed costs for building and maintaining wires and pipes. The other half, the energy component, is largely tied to the price of natural gas. While gas does fluctuate, it’s also fairly cheap, even during what has been a fierce winter.
Closing the trade deficit won’t be pain-free
The shortfall grew in Trump’s first term
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Bloomberg
Eliminating America’s trade deficit is a priority for the White House, which has threatened to place tariffs on imports to pressure other nations to buy more US goods. Narrowing the shortfall won’t be easy, and consumers may pay higher prices on products in the way of these tariffs.
In recent years, the swelling has largely been a byproduct of America’s strong economy and dollar. The economy expanded by 2.8% in 2024, more than a percentage point better than other advanced economies on average. The growth allowed the US to step up purchases of foreign goods, but its struggling trade partners didn’t have the means to reciprocate. Exports fell far below imports in 2024 with the gap totaling $918.4 billion, up 40.5% from when Trump’s first term ended.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Bloomberg
Note: Map shows distinct trade partners.
Trump views boosting exports at the expense of imports as key to his plan to create what he calls “the golden age of America.” And he thinks that placing tariffs on US partners will rebalance global trade in its favor. The risk is that the US is no longer viewed as a reliable partner. Canada is seeking to decouple its oil business from the US, and the European Union struck a deal with four South American countries in December to create a huge trading bloc that excludes the US.
Now add the threat of retaliatory tariffs on US goods and the task looks even harder. Trump tried unsuccessfully to reverse the growing deficit in his first term, with the shortfall at $653.7 billion at the end of 2020, an expansion of 36.3% from 2016.
Want to know more about how the trade deficit could change under Trump? Robert Burgess will be live here to answer your questions Wednesday, March 5, at 10 a.m. EST.
Health insurance for the vulnerable is at risk
More funding cuts would narrow Medicaid access
Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Health Interview Survey
Note: 2024 data through June.
Access to health insurance, which is intimately linked to the short- and long-term health of Americans, could dramatically change under Trump.
The number of is near an all-time high at the start of Trump’s second term. And a record of more than 24 million people are covered through the Affordable Care Act (ACA), almost double the number that accessed public health-care plans at the end of the president's first term. Credit for the progress goes to expanded subsidies under Biden that made coverage more affordable as well as investment in programs that made enrollment easier.
Trump seems intent on unravelling that progress. He is unlikely to renew Biden’s subsidies, which expire at the end of 2025. The president has also slashed funding for navigators, who helped hundreds of thousands of consumers find coverage last year, to just $10 million from $98 million.
Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Health Interview Survey
Note: Data as of Q3 2020 and Q3 2024.
The biggest impact, though, could come from steep cuts to Medicaid, which provides health coverage to some 72 million low-income people. A budget blueprint passed by House Republicans in February envisions asking the committee that oversees the program to find $880 billion in savings over the next decade, a task that policy experts see falling squarely on Medicaid. Cuts of that magnitude would amount to about 10% of the public health insurance program’s annual funding. Ideas being floated include adding work requirements, getting rid of matching funds provided to states that have expanded Medicaid under the ACA and changing the funding structure to give states a fixed amount per enrollee.
Trump could claim easy wins on crime
Only aggravated assaults have stayed high
Source: Real-Time Crime Index
Note: Cumulative change since 2018 calculated using rolling 12-month totals reported by 351 agencies that cover nearly 82 million people. Violent crime comprises aggravated assault, robbery, rape and murder.
Combating rising crime, usually linked to illegal immigration, was a central theme in Trump’s campaign pitch. This argument was always at odds with the statistics.
There was a sharp increase in murders during the last year of Trump’s first term in office, but it began to recede a few months after Biden took over in 2021. A more complicated picture emerged for other crimes, but pretty much every offense was on the decline by late 2023. Illegal immigration, meanwhile, fell in 2020 and peaked in late 2023. There’s no reason to tout a causal connection there.
Source: Real-Time Crime Index
Note: Data are rolling 12-month totals reported by 351 agencies that cover nearly 82 million people. Violent crime comprises aggravated assault, robbery, rape and murder.
Still, the trend is Trump’s friend. If the main cause of the crime wave was some combination of the pandemic and tensions between the police and public in the wake of George Floyd’s killing in 2020, it will probably keep receding.
To keep track of that, the best place to look will be the new Real Time Crime Index, bankrolled by philanthropist and former energy trader John Arnold’s Arnold Ventures. The index offers timely and consistent monthly data from law enforcement agencies covering about a quarter of the nation’s population. Every one of the four violent and three property crimes it tracks declined in 2024, although — the most common violent crime — require watching, as they’re still well above pre-2020 levels and barely falling. If these stay stubbornly high, despite Trump’s immigration crackdown, it would point to the need for a fresh approach, one that considers how to tackle issues such as mental health and homelessness rather than scapegoating undocumented immigrants.
Deporting immigrants has its costs
Labor shortages risk disrupting the economy
Source: US Department of Homeland Security
Note: Fiscal years. Pre-2014 data from OHSS table 39.
Trump faces the formidable task of balancing a political imperative with an economic necessity: fulfilling his campaign promise to kick out as many undocumented immigrants as possible while satisfying the economy’s need for skilled and unskilled foreign workers.
Trump has pledged the “largest deportation operation in American history.” So far, the overburdened immigration machinery is not on pace to match the record of about 432,000 deportations that former President Barack Obama achieved in 2013, let alone Vice President JD Vance’s goal of 1 million. The more this operation succeeds, the more economically disruptive it will be. The undocumented comprise 5% of America’s workforce, and that rises to more than one-fifth in construction and to almost one-half for agriculture, vital sectors where labor shortages could quickly raise costs.
Source: US Department of State
Note: Fiscal year 2024 is aggregated from monthly data.
Trump has said “I’m fine with legal immigration …. We need people.” But the question of more visas for skilled workers sparked a nasty spat among his followers in January. Moreover, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 policy blueprint that Trump’s administration has largely followed (despite his disavowals) amounts to a “comprehensive plan to drive immigration levels to unprecedented lows,” as the Niskanen Center, a libertarian think tank, put it. The plan would use administrative measures to wind down H-2 visa categories for seasonal and non-seasonal unskilled workers, which are popular with farmers, and reduce foreign students’ access to the skilled H-1B visas favored by Silicon Valley and Wall Street.
During the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, stepped-up enforcement was seen as the predicate for comprehensive (and ultimately unsuccessful) immigration reform. Trump is relying, instead, on executive orders. But only a law can provide the funds needed for adequate enforcement and resolve the fate of almost 14 million unauthorized immigrants. And only a law can update the caps on working visas set more than three decades ago. The road to address America’s immigration problems still ends at Capitol Hill, not the White House.
Shrinking the budget deficit is a pipe dream
There’s no credible plan for spending cuts
Source: US Department of the Treasury via Bloomberg
Trump and other Republicans frequently slammed the Biden administration for what they said was runaway spending that sparked elevated rates of inflation and impaired America’s finances. Trump’s plan to rein in the federal budget? Call for trillions of dollars of tax breaks while promising spending cuts of a magnitude that few believe can be delivered.
Government spending exceeded revenues by some $1.8 trillion or about 6% of gross domestic product, in fiscal 2024. The shortfall for fiscal 2025 is forecast at $1.9 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Not to worry, Trump says, because he has a plan. It entails unleashing across all federal agencies to look for savings to help pay for an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which expires this year.
Source: Bloomberg
If renewed, the tax breaks would cost $4.6 trillion in forgone revenue over the next decade, the CBO estimates. But no respectable fiscal expert expects DOGE to have much of an impact on the deficit, given that a lion’s share of spending comes from politically untouchable entitlement programs and defense. The shortfall is expected to hold well above 6% of GDP through 2026, according to the median estimate of more than two dozen economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
A big reason why this is important is because it influences yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes, which help determine what it costs the government, businesses and households to borrow money. Worried about high mortgage rates? The deficit deserves much of the blame.
Inflation victory is within reach
Tariff threats are raising concern about a resurgence
Source: Bloomberg
Note: The breakeven rate measures average inflation expected by Treasury investors.
Trump is the first president in four decades to win office, in part, due to inflation, and he has the chance to play the conquering hero. Unfortunately, his own policies may delay his victory lap — or perhaps prevent it from happening at all.
Many economists suspect that the president’s trade agenda will raise some prices in 2025, though the devil will be in the details — what Trump actually implements and for how long. Immigration and tax policies could also Trump claims that his plan for energy production will be an antidote, though oil prices have already moderated since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and it isn’t clear US producers would play along with a production bonanza that hurts profitability.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York and University of Michigan via Bloomberg
In January, the consumer price index rose 3% from a year earlier, while the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures deflator, went up 2.5%. Both are too high but have moderated significantly from their 2022 peaks. The median policymaker on the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee projects the latter measure will reach the bank’s 2% target in 2027. Trump’s trade policies complicate that trajectory.
Breakeven rates, which show bond traders’ expectations for average inflation in the next two years, have climbed to about 3.2% from 2.5% in December. Another price spike could lead Americans to lose faith in the disinflation process. Inflation expectations have a tendency to be self-fulfilling, and in a worst-case scenario, volatile prices could devolve into a persistent concern.
Housing is key to narrowing inequality
Trump needs to deliver on lower mortgage rates
Source: The Federal Reserve
Note: Grouped by income percentile.
Trump’s first term stood out for halting the growing wealth inequality that had been a feature of the prior three administrations. For the president to repeat that achievement, he will need a new boom in housing, the single biggest asset for most families.
During every recent administration almost all income groups became wealthier when judged by their or assets minus debt, in Federal Reserve data. This is broadly thanks to housing, which is the biggest contributor to wealth accumulation across much of the population except for the top 20%, who have more in equities. The value of real estate has risen consistently over the last few decades, except for the period affected by the financial crisis. Meanwhile, higher earners had the additional benefit of a mostly rising stock market since 2010.
Source: The Federal Reserve
Note: Net worth growth for each administration is calculated as a steady annual rate.
During Trump’s first term, low earners as a group saw the biggest annualized net worth growth, in part, because their portfolios are dominated by real estate (if they own at all), which appreciated for that group more rapidly than stocks. Inequality narrowed slightly because the net worth of higher earners increased by smaller amounts. All income groups also got wealthier under Biden and inequality narrowed a bit, but the gains were bigger under Trump.
The market’s performance will help determine what happens to inequality over the next four years; if it does well, wealth will rise but inequality will likely widen.
More important for the wealth divide will be how the housing market performs, which may explain why the administration is so concerned about 10-year Treasury yields, which determine mortgage rates and, therefore, access to homeownership.
(Corrects chart to use geometric average for net worth growth. Removes reference to George W. Bush in 2nd paragraph.)
Markets are impartial measures of tariffs and taxes
Sweeping Trump policies promise to shake up investors
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Monthly performance since February 2009 are for S&P 500 Total Return Index, US Treasury Index, US Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return.
Markets don’t care about politics, and the occupant of the White House has less impact on asset prices than people like to believe. Trump seems intent on being the exception with sweeping policies around spending, taxes, tariffs and environmental regulation.
The degree of his impact is tricky to forecast. Spending cuts, for example, would have to number in the trillions of dollars to be consequential. Fiscal austerity on that scale would probably slow the economy, pulling inflation and interest rates down, which would weaken the dollar and boost bond prices. Roughly the same could be expected if Congress declines to extend the 2017 tax cuts, resulting in bigger tax bills for individuals and small businesses, crowding out spending elsewhere.
The potential impact of tariffs is more varied. If companies pass the cost of tariffs on to consumers, inflation may rekindle, sending interest rates higher and bonds lower. But if companies absorb that cost, industries in the path of tariffs and their shareholders will pay with lower stock prices. The US’ trading partners might also scale back their own tariffs to placate Trump, opening new revenue channels for American multinationals and bolstering their shares.
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Data through Feb. 28.
Moves to repeal environmental regulations and ramp up domestic manufacturing could spur commodity production and bring down the cost of energy, grains and metals, which together account for most of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. It would also weigh on inflation, interest rates and plausibly the dollar, which would be a boon for bond investors and shareholders of highly leveraged or multinational companies.
It’s hard to know which of these scenarios will materialize, but the best guess is the one reflected in the collective wisdom of markets. Watch interest rates and the dollar for the impact of Trump’s policies on inflation. Stocks will hint at what tariffs and taxes mean for industry. Commodity prices will point, in part, to how deregulation affects supply.
US is falling behind China on clean energy
Addressing climate change is an urgent need
Source: BloombergNEF
Trump is the worst possible president for this critical moment in the fight against catastrophic climate change. His disdain for green energy all but ensures that the US will fall further behind China when it comes to energy-transition investments.
By some measures, we have just four years before the window slams shut forever on capping temperature increases at 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial averages. Beyond that level, the effects of temperature and weather extremes on global health, agriculture, economics and more will become much more dire.
Yet Trump denies even the reality of climate change, putting him at the extreme end of both US and global opinion. His administration has wasted no time scrubbing the very mention of climate from government websites and attacking the accomplishments of his predecessor, the greenest US president in history.
Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Other renewables include energy storage, clean industry, carbon capture and storage, nuclear and hydrogen. Data exclude power grid investments, estimated at $95 billion in 2024.
Biden also oversaw record production of the very fossil fuels heating up the planet. This undercuts his green legacy but also Trump’s promise to secure energy dominance by unleashing some sort of pent-up boom in black gold. The boom has already happened.
Meanwhile, investment in the that will help the US transition from fossil fuels continues apace, regardless of who occupies the White House. Green energy keeps getting cheaper, and demand keeps growing — just as it did the first time Trump was president. And his voters are the main economic beneficiaries of this investment.
Trump still has many tools to frustrate progress, including dismantling the tax incentives enshrined in Biden’s signature climate law. World leaders facing political blowback over the energy transition might take cues from the president. But others, particularly in China, could seize the chance to replace the US as the planet’s true dominant force in energy’s future.
Trump isn’t popular and may never be
That may not matter since Republicans control Congress
Source: Gallup
There was good news and bad news in Trump’s approval numbers a month into his second term. On the one hand, his rating of 45% was five points higher than his standing in February 2017. On the other, he’s uniquely unpopular among second-term presidents, who typically have had higher approval ratings in the weeks following their inaugurations.
Trump’s numbers suggest a weaker and perhaps shorter honeymoon period.
has already dipped slightly, according to Gallup, falling two points as his administration has made major moves to slash federal government jobs and spending but done little to address cost-of-living concerns. His handling of the economy, the top election issue for voters in 2024, gets low marks, too — some 54% of Americans disapprove of the job he has done so far. A majority also disapprove of his handling of international trade and foreign affairs.
Trump’s low standing is driven by Democrats, who overwhelmingly disapprove of him, as well as Independents, who give him a 37% overall approval rating. Given the partisan environment and his history as an unpopular president, Trump will likely never reach the ranks of other second-term presidents, most of whom have had the approval of a clear majority at some point in their tenures.
But Trump might not need that kind of support to push through legislation since his party controls Congress. Still, addressing high prices must become more of a focus in the coming months because even partisan loyalty can start to ebb in a difficult economy.
