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CC-Transcript

  • 00:00Barry I absolutely love your essay on hand-wringing. Get over it. Tell me what the quality of our hand-wringing needs to be. Well it has to be database. You have to understand what makes the current circumstances so unique compared to previous scenarios. First let's get this out of the way. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is not the definition of a recession and hasn't been since since the NBER has been put into place in the been the post Great Depression era. If you don't have a broad economic environment if you're a you know a an emerging economy well then you could use as a shorthand. But there have been all sorts of different changes that have been going on in the present economy that it just seems foolish to apply old discarded rules to a new scenario and say suddenly this is a recession when most of the data does not support. BARRIE I will tell you that's exactly what Gary Shilling told me when I asked him about this on Saturday. But the NBER doesn't tell us oftentimes that we're in a recession until after we're out of the recession. Right. I mean right. That's pretty useless. Well what are you using their declaration for. You're certainly not using it as a basis for making an investment decisions. So you know when we look at past recessions we see a decrease in economic activity primarily in employment and wages. That's the biggest driver. And you know look at go back to January through June unemployment went from over 4 percent down to three point six percent. We have never been in a recession with declining unemployment. Now I don't want to say it'll never happen in the future but it makes it much more dire. Alan Jing when you look at the economic data what we're really seeing in negative GDP is not so much a decrease in economic activity as we're seeing a massive surge in inflation. Remember GDP data is real not nominal. And so if it tips into negative territory it's partially due to in the right a build up. But it's also due to inflation. Very quickly here I want you to tell me what to do if I'm in cash. People are in cash. They're fat and happy right now in a tough market futures. Negative 45. Dow futures negative 351. What's the read Holtz-Eakin process to get back into the market. If I'm in cash. So first the data shows two or three times you better making a lump sum payment. Then you are doing dollar cost averaging over time. But people have a hard time emotionally making that one time investment. So you have two ways to approach. You could do this over time. Hey I'm going to break this into five 20 percent lumps and every other month put that much money to work. So you're buying on the way down and you're buying on the way up. Or you could do it on a percentage basis with down 20 percent. I'm putting some money into the market down 24 percent down 28 percent. But pre decide and execute it and make it on a matic. Don't rely on yourself to do that because emotionally most people become paralyzed and in the sea of red. Yes it's very very difficult to say. Let me throw good money after bad. It's a great to have a hard time with that. It's a great point Barry. And again you know I was watching you on surveillance last week and you said something like it's your mindset. That's the most important variable when it comes to success in investing. And I think that's another example. Bear Red holds. Great to have you on. I always watch or read your blog at the big picture. Our roads dot com. And of course he's a Bloomberg contributor as well.
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Ritholtz: Data Doesn't Support US Recession

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July 5th, 2022, 3:02 PM GMT+0000

Barry Ritholtz, Host of the "Masters in Business" podcast and Chairman & CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, discusses US economic data and recession risks. (Source: Bloomberg)


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