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00:00So as we heard President Biden saying Putin's back is against the wall he's saying Russia growing more desperate. What do you think might be achieved as he heads to Poland. Well I think that there's been as he's mentioned it's very important to show the continued unity of the West in pushing back against Russia's war in Ukraine. But they're also very specific things that these leaders can all talk about and discuss what are going to be the trip wire that might push them to take different action. What are the thresholds that different countries have for taking different types of military activity of support. So for instance you've got countries like Poland that are probably a little bit more alarmed and heightened because they're right there on the border. So the question is though what are the specific things that they might be able to get onboard with. And one of the big ones the big issue still is oil and gas because Europe is still purchasing a 600 million dollars worth of oil and gas from Russia every day. So that's the type of lifeline that if the countries can get together they can find a way to cut that off from Russia. Yeah absolutely. We just mentioned that big spike coming through in crude on the fact that the EU could be edging closer to that ban when it comes to the war we know that it's nearing that one month mark. And we mentioned there President Biden and talking about Putin having his back against the wall. When do you think that we might see some kind of tangible resolution between both sides in Ukraine and Russia. And I guess putting to that point to more pressure on Russia as we see Japan stepping up sanctions too. I think we're still a long way off from an actual negotiated resolution between Russia and Ukraine. But that doesn't mean that we should stop putting pressure on. And I think that diplomacy the door need to stay open there between those two countries. But the West and others also need to be working on all other corners. So for example is China a possibility right now. China could play a role in helping Russia towards a negotiated resolution. It's probably the only country that has the kind of leverage on Russia that could. But more importantly is trying to keep China on the sidelines because China comes in straight financially and even more importantly militarily supporting Russia. That could really lengthen this conflict for quite some time. Lizzie we do have the fog of war. But the common narrative at least in the West is that he has made a huge strategic error in his invasion of Kiev not expecting quite the reaction that he's actually ended up with. How does Vladimir Putin manage to or can he manage to extricate himself from this should he wish to without the loss of face. That is absolutely the biggest question right now because now everyone is talking about can we offer Putin an off ramp and it's not about trying to concede to him it's about trying to prevent a greater loss of life because at this stage you're seeing the types of attacks on civilians that are really just horrific. The question is is there something that can be negotiated that is acceptable to both sides. And I think the biggest struggle for Putin right now is going to be what he can sell back home. He controls the media there. So what can he bring back home to make it look as though he's gotten more than he had beforehand. And that's going to be difficult because he went in with very very high demands. I think if he were able to get Ukraine to sign off on you know basically all of Donbas from the land bridge that he's starting to create towards Crimea that would probably be acceptable. But to be totally honest I don't see a scenario where that's acceptable for Ukraine because it would be in effect rewarding the aggression that Russia that Russia posed to Ukraine. And it's not only a matter of time before perhaps he tries again. So that's probably going to be the biggest sticking point right now. But if you can continue keeping the pressure on Russia and increasing it what we have right now with the Western reactions and what's going on with Ukraine's military fight is that you've got an increasing cost to Russia on the battlefield with all of the military assistance. And that's what the West has really been focusing on to help Ukraine keep dragging this out and keep defending itself while also reducing the ability of Russia to pay for the war. And that's what the sanctions are really doing. So at this point if you can increase that cost sufficiently is that enough to force Putin to accept something something lesser such as a declaration of neutrality in Ukraine and perhaps giving up Crimea for Foley. But I'm just not sure that we're at a place yet where they're going to meet in the middle. Lizzy many people have asked what's next. Does he then take another country. I mean people have converted to 38 Sue Dayton for 1956 in Hungary. So you know now people are talking about the Baltic states or even tourist trap which is part of Moldova. I mean that's the real that's the real geopolitical issue here which is is there a risk that if you don't stop a stop Putin in Ukraine where is he going to go next. I think that the real real fear in the longer term I mean in the shorter term if he's not able to take Ukraine. If you really have the military power to go up against NATO and probably not. But if he does not pay a cost for this if he's allowed to basically get away with aggression that allows him to go into you know into Ukraine and take more than he had when he when he first entered. That question is what is the lesson that he takes away from that if there's no accountability for it. I think it's going to be a while before he tries to take on NATO directly. I mean the clear risk right now is that something goes you know crosses the border into Poland. It's some kind of escalation mistake. And then you do have a war between NATO and Russia. But but there are also a number of countries around there that aren't that aren't NATO that that would fire risk. So I think those are two separate escalation there. But they're both they're both things that we're concerned about and trying to prevent by making sure that he doesn't come out of this winning. Lizzie you touched on China a little bit earlier. Just more importantly what is the likelihood that we could see President Xi helping to bring an end to this. And if he doesn't does that isolate China. Well you've got a couple of levels here of kind of what's what's best and what's next. That's right. Best would be if China decides that that it's in its interest to really try and help negotiate a resolution to this conflict. And that would be ideal because China frankly is the only place that Russia has to go having been cut out of most of the rest of the world at this stage. And China has the ability to prop them up economically not wholly take the place of their engagement with the West but to really make it a lot more palatable. But short of that it would still be exceedingly important if we can just keep China on the sidelines just ensure that China doesn't decide to come in in support of Russia. And one of the ways that we can do this is diplomatically by continuing to keep those conversations open. I think there was a little bit of progress on this last week at least in keeping them on the sidelines. The other way a secondary sanction which is that the two we haven't used yet but it basically says you you don't you don't have to stop trading with Russia but you can either trade with Russia or you could trade with the US or the West to the rest of the world. And that's up to you. We basically say if you if you engage with Russia in trade then you don't have access to your financial systems. And that would be a big escalation with China. And I think that that's one of the reasons we haven't gone there. We'd rather persuade them based on the fact that it is better for them as well if we don't have a war in Ukraine. But that is one of those remaining tools in our toolbox.

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Former U.S. Diplomat Shackelford on Biden's Europe Trip

Chicago Council on Global Affairs Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy, Elizabeth Shackelford, previews President Biden's trip to Europe for talks over the war in Ukraine. Shackelford is a former U.S. diplomat who served in Warsaw before the invasion of Crimea. She was speaking with Juliette Saly and Rishaad Salamat on "Bloomberg Markets: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

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