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00:00And Laurence typically I'dd come straight to you on a forecast call for U.S. growth for Europe etc.. I want to come to you on a number you guys have put out this morning. Vaccinations are key for the recovery. They would only cost 50 billion dollars 50 billion. The context of how much we've spent over the last 18 months is nothing. How do you get there. How do you get to that number. So so the way we get to that number sorry about this. Basically you know the 50 billion is what's been estimating by Kovacs and all the related institution. The 10 trillion is actually what did you 20. Has been providing into fiscal support to their economy to people to firms to jobs. So what when you balance things out 10 trillion for supporting our economy going through that pain they make you know compare that with the 50 tiny 50 billion to bring the vaccine to the entire world population. That looks completely disproportionate. Well right now we're dealing with the Army crime variant the idea that Africa has an incredibly low vaccination rate. Have you heard from member nations that they are accelerating doubling down some of their aid to try to distribute vaccines in Africa and in other places that are really underserved. So yeah with our health departments here at the OECD and the trade department noticed that it's very difficult to bring it to Africa as you say it's where the rate of vaccination is fairly low. There's a huge logistic questions right bringing not only the vaccine but being able to keep it at the right temperature and then distribute it around. So that's where I think a lot of the effort now has to focus on. But not only if we go back to the OECD And that's what we showed this morning. Even within those countries and advanced economies some countries have very low vaccination rates. And that's an issue because as we've seen for example in some of the Eastern European countries they just had let them to put in place restrictions to mobility and economic activity again. So really you know expanding vaccination making sure people get double or triple vaccine is key to a sustained recovery. In the meantime Lawrence there is a problem when we talk about the hiking cycle for the Federal Reserve when we talk about the Bank of England going to a similar type of mode at the same time that you are seeing the potential for additional variance to slow the economy what's the risk that we get a slowdown in economic growth at the same time as surging inflation and central banks being forced to tighten into that. So look there's lots of uncertainty and there is no question that it's new violent is adding to this uncertainty. Now one of the thing we're very clear about is there's no one size fits all policy. The inflation in the US is very different from the inflation you may see in Asia for example in China or India. Is again very different from the one you're seeing the continental Europe in the UK. And for that reason we have a very clear message. If inflation tensions mostly come from the supply side then central banks who look through when you have a lot of momentum in the recovery excessive demand and driving back where it was then yeah normalizing monetary policy is not something that's extraordinary and should be done. Laurence Tom Keene good morning to you on radio and television. Lawrence Boone with us through the OECD as they reassess the global economy. We'll do that again with key economic data today including ADP. Laurence I did a very careful study of John Byrne Murdoch's magnificent work at the FT on cases and particularly deaths from Covid. The vector the trend called the Lord Vector of Germany Austria and Switzerland is nothing short of grim. Can oh you see d extrapolate out the trends that we see in deaths from Covid or do you sit back and wait for more data. Look at good morning to you and thanks for the invitation again. An idea always see you know where economists or what we do is we take into account the uncertainty that has increased with a period with the emergence of the new environment. We take into account the uncertainty that has increased because Delta is developing faster in countries where there's less vaccination and we factor that in. But I think that's that's the best we can do again. We've warned about the uncertainty that was coming from the lack of vaccination. We've warned about the threat that this total imbalance between countries very vaccinated and those where they are just mind the way the vaccine is has not gone yet was creating. And the risk that's creating this was happening now is is just a reminder that we need to find this 50 billion. You know that that will help us and all this imbalances and this trust that the virus is creating on the global economy.

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OECD Puts $50 Billion Price Tag on Vaccinating the World

OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone discusses the cost to vaccinate the world to aid in the recovery of the global economy. She speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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