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00:00JOINS OTHER NATIONS FOCUSING ON A GREENER FUTURE. GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. WE HAVE MANY DEBATES. HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE WHERE WE ARE IN THE COMMODITY IN RECOVERY CYCLE? > > I THINK WE ARE SEEING A ECONOMY GLOBALLY THAT IS OPERATING SOMEWHAT BELOW FULL CAPACITY BUT GETTING MUCH HIGHER UP THERE. YOU LOOK AT THE PRICES, WHAT WE TALK ABOUT THE START OF A NEW CYCLE, ETC. IF I SAID TO YOU IN JANUARY OF LAST YEAR THAT WE WOULD BE DOWN SOMETHING LIKE 4 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF OIL DEMAND AND GET THE PRICE WILL BE RIGHT WHERE IT IS TODAY, YOU WOULD SAY WE ARE AT THE START OF A STRONG CYCLE. WE ARE SEEING PEOPLE REALLY WANT THE PHYSICAL MATERIAL TODAY RATHER THAN WAITING FOR A COUPLE OF MONTHS. DEMAND IS STRONG ACROSS THE GLOBE. IT IS NOT LIMITED TO ONE SECTOR. IT IS ALL THE WAY FROM THE MACRO TO THE MICRO. MANUS: THAT IS A VERY BULLISH JUMPING OFF POINT. LET'S GET TO CHINA. IN TERMS OF THE DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR COPPER AND IRON ORE. THEY ARE TRYING TO LEAN INTO SLIGHTLY LESS EMISSIONS. THAT IS A RISK -- TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORIES. IRON ORE, THEY ARE TRYING TO CUT EMISSIONS. THEY ARE SAYING WE WANT TO REDUCE CAPACITY. THE PRICE FOR THE HIGH-GRADE IRON ORE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THE UNITS WANT TO RUN THEM HIGHER GRADE MATERIAL. THAT IS PULLING UP THE PREMIUM PRICE CONTRACT. YOU ARE SEEING STRONG DEMAND FOR CONSTRUCTION. THEY STILL HAVE PLANS TO REDEVELOP A LOT OF AREAS. STILL A LOT OF HOUSING THAT NEEDS TO BE BUILT. ON COPPER, AS THEY ARE BECOMING MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY CONSCIOUS, THIS MOVE TOWARD CLEANER ENERGY, ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING POINTS, GRID ROLLOUTS, ALL OF THESE THINGS REQUIRE MORE AND MORE COPPER. THE OUTLOOK IN NOT JUST CHINA BUT ELSEWHERE REMAINS STRONG IN OUR OPINION. THE WAY THE FLOW IS GOING, THE PREMIUMS WOULD SUGGEST YOU SHOULDN'T BE SEEING MATERIAL COMING INTO CHINA AND YET YOU ARE. I DO THINK THAT THIS IS A STORY THAT GOES WELL BEYOND CHINA. MANUS: TAKE YOU BEYOND CHINA. I AM GOING TO PUSH YOU FOR THE ESTIMATE ON PRICES. MIKE MCGLONE AND BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE SINCE WE LEFT TO MAKE IT ABOVE $10,000 TO PERPETUATE THIS SUPER CYCLE. HOW FAR WOULD COUPLE RUN ON THE UPSIDE WITHOUT BEING A THREAT TO DEMAND. WITH THAT ANYWHERE IN YOUR PSYCHE? > > FOR COPPER, IT IS HARD TO SUBSTITUTE IT AWAY. THE HIGH-VOLTAGE LINES, YOU CAN BRING IN SOME ELEMENTIA -- SOME ALUMINUM. BUT MUCH MAKES IT UNIQUE AND HARD TO REPLACE. GENERALLY, YOU ARE SUBSTITUTING AWAY FROM OTHER THINGS INTO MORE ELECTRICITY AND THINGS THAT REQUIRE MORE COPPER. OIL, ELECTRIC VEHICLES, THAT REQUIRES 4-5 MORE TIMES COPPER. SOLAR AND WIND. SO IT IS ALL GOING THAT WAY. IT DOES NOT HAVE TO JUST BE CHINA THAT IS SUPPORTING THIS RALLY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A GLOBAL MULTI-REGIONAL RALLY HERE WHERE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME YOU HAVE STRONG DEMAND COMING OUT OF THE U.S., EUROPE, JAPAN, KOREA. YOU LOOK AT THE NEW ORDERS, THOSE ARE VERY STRONG. BEYOND THAT, WE STILL HAVE 1-2 MORE STIMULUS PLANS TO COME OUT OF THE U.S. IF ANY OF THOSE COME THROUGH, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SUPERCHARGED CYCLE. MANUS: AN INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN BY BIDEN IS ONE OF THOSE BIG GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE PLANS. IS THAT IN THIS PRICE CYCLE SO FAR OVER THAT AND THE MULTIYEAR DIMENSION TO WHAT YOU JUST SAID TO ME? > > I THINK THIS IS MULTIYEAR. FOR COMMODITIES, YOU ARE NOT BASING FUTURE GROWTH. THE SHAPE OF THE CURVE SAYS THE REST OF IT. WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE STIMULUS PLAN GO THROUGH. WE HAVE NOT SEEN COMPANIES OR PRODUCERS PLACING THE MATERIALS FOR THAT ORDER BECAUSE IT IS NOT REAL YET ONCE THE LEGISLATION GETS PASSED, THEN PEOPLE START TO ADJUST THEIR

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Commodities Demand 'Extraordinarily Strong' Globally, Trafigura Says

Trading house Trafigura Group said copper and other commodities have room to move even higher on continued global demand for raw materials that could drive a multiyear price rally. “Demand is extraordinarily strong across the globe and it’s not limited to one sector,” Saad Rahim, Trafigura’s chief economist told Bloomberg's Manus Cranny on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe." (Source: Bloomberg)

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