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00:00IN THAT TRIAL. KAILEY: SAM FAZELI OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR INSIGHT. JOINING US IS NATHALIE TOCCI, INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS INSTITUTE DIRECTOR AND SPECIAL ADVISOR TO THE EU ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS. IT IS GREAT TO HAVE YOU. SAM JUST RAN US THROUGH WHAT THE POTENTIAL SUPPLY CHAIN RAMIFICATIONS COULD BE IF THESE EXPORT BANS ARE INSTATED. WHAT COULD THE POLITICAL RIPPLE EFFECTS BE? NATHALIE: I THINK THE FIRST THING TO SAY IS THE WAY IN WHICH THIS WHOLE ISSUE IS FRAMED, AND IT IS OFTEN TALKED ABOUT IN TERMS OF VACCINE NATIONALISM. I THINK FROM A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE, THE WAY IN WHICH THIS IS UNDERSTOOD IS BASICALLY AS EUROPEAN STATS VIS-A-VIS BIG PHARMA. SO IT IS NOT REALLY EUROPEANS VERSUS THE UNITED KINGDOM, OR ANYONE ELSE, BUT VIS-A-VIS PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES. THAT IS ONE ASPECT TO BEAR IN MIND. I THINK THIS OBVIOUSLY COMES AS A BACKDROP OF A SITUATION WHICH IS DEEPLY UNSATISFACTORY IN EUROPE, AND TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF VACCINES AVAILABLE, AND IN GENERAL, THE ROLLOUT OF THE VACCINE PROGRAMS ACROSS DIFFERENT MEMBER STATES. SO OBVIOUSLY WERE IT NOT FOR THIS QUESTION OF ULTIMATE NEED, EXISTENTIAL NEED, WE WOULDN'T EVEN BE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION. OBVIOUSLY, HAVING SAID ALL THIS, I DO AGREE THERE ARE POSSIBLE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS TO ALL OF THIS. INDEED, IT COULD LEAD TO RIPPLE EFFECTS THAT COULD GO WELL BEYOND VACCINES AND IMPINGE UPON WHAT IS BROADLY THE TREND IN PROTECTIONISM WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST YEARS. GUY: WHAT WOULD YOUR ADVICE BE TO THE COMMISSIONER AT THIS STAGE? THERE IS NOW CLEARLY A DISCUSSION ABOUT LIMITING OR BANNING EXPORTS TO EVERYBODY. IF YOU WERE ASKED A QUESTION IS THAT A GOOD IDEA OR NOT A GOOD IDEA, WHAT WOULD YOUR ANSWER BE? NATHALIE: IT ISN'T A BLACK AND WHITE ANSWER. YES, I DO SEE THE REASON WHY A LIMITED EXPORT CONTROLS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT IN TIME, IF THEY ARE LIMITED IN TIME AND IN SCOPE, MEANING NOT VIS-A-VIS COUNTRIES THAT ARE IN AS MUCH NEED AS EUROPEAN MEMBER STATES, AND AT THE TIME OF THOSE MORE STRUCTURAL RIPPLE EFFECTS IT CAN HAVE ON SUPPLY CHAINS. THERE ARE INDEED VERY NEGATIVE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS THIS CAN HAVE. KAILEY: WITH THOSE REPERCUSSIONS SHOW UP FOR EUROPEAN LEADERS AT THE BALLOT BOX? NATHALIE: I THINK AT THE BALLOT BOX, THOSE REPERCUSSIONS FOR EUROPEAN LEADERS, THE CAPULET AND THEY ARE MAKING ARE EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE. AT THE MOMENT, IT IS MORE OF A PROBLEM IF YOU EXPORT VACCINES AT A TIME IN WHICH VACCINES ARE NOT AVAILABLE WITHIN MEMBER STATES. SO IF THERE IS A DOMESTIC POLITICAL CALCULATION, IT IS THE OTHER WAY ROUND. GUY: IS THERE A BREXIT UNDERTONE TO ALL OF THIS? ONE OF THE BIG FEARS FROM PEOPLE I WAS TALKING TO PRE-BREXIT ABOUT THE IMPACT BREXIT COULD HAVE WAS IF THE U.K. HAD A BIG WIN POST-BREXIT, THAT WOULD UNDERMINE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE EU. TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THAT IS DICTATING CURRENT THINKING? NATHALIE: THIS HAS BEEN TRUE SINCE 2016, THE BRITS THINK THAT EUROPEANS TALK ABOUT BREXIT AND THINK ABOUT BREXIT AND UNDERSTAND THINGS IN BREXIT TERMS THE WHOLE TIME, BUT I MUST SAY, SITTING HERE IN ROME AND LISTENING TO CONVERSATIONS OF DIFFERENT NUMBER STATES, THE BREXIT ANGLE TO THIS EU/U.K. VACCINE QUESTION IS COMPLETELY ABSENT FROM THE DEBATE. KAILEY: WHEN YOU LISTEN TO THESE CONVERSATIONS, HOW MUCH CONSENSUS IS THERE BETWEEN OF THE NUMBER STATES -- THE MEMBER STATES? WHO IS ON WHAT PAGE? NATHALIE: WE ARE BROADLY ON THE SAME PAGE ON THIS. THIS IS NOT A STANCE THAT IS BEING TAKEN BY MORE NATIONALIST MEMBER STATES. IT ALL STARTED WHEN PRIME MINISTER MARIO DRAGHI, WHO IS ALL THINGS OTHER THAN A NATIONALIST, TOOK A STANCE TOWARDS LIMITING THE ASTRA EXPORTS TO AUSTRALIA. SO IT IS REALLY SOMETHING WHICH IS UNDERSTOOD AS PART OF THIS BROADER DRIVE FOR EUROPEAN AUTONOMY, WHICH DOES NOT MEAN

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E.U. to Abolish All Country Exemptions for Vaccine Export Curbs

International Affairs Institute Director Nathalie Tocci speaks with Bloomberg's Guy Johnson and Kailey Leinz about the political implications of the E.U.'s decision to restrict virus exports on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close". (Source: Bloomberg)

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