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00:00Is there a sense that was finally getting some momentum behind all of the talk about impeachment. And do you think given that we're still seeing U.S. stocks hitting record highs that there are people out there that are still underplaying or under appreciating the amount of political risk that's at stake here . I don't believe so in part because I think the outcome is somewhat preordained here. Look Republicans have always indicated that the majority the vast majority of them are going to be supporting President Trump and voting against impeachment in the House of Representatives and voting against removal in the U.S. Senate. So in that sense I think markets have figured out exactly where this is headed. I do think that we're going to see a lot of turbulence in terms of the rhetoric and the back and forth but the fundamentals in terms of what will actually happen that I think is relatively preordained and predictable . Does it build momentum for 2020 though. Because we're hearing from a lot of veteran investors. Patricia Jones just being the latest to come out and say potentially Elizabeth Warren victory means a 25 percent tanking when it comes to US stocks. There's a lot of people now starting to navigate with the possibility of a Warren victory . Is does the impeachment noise build momentum for a Democratic campaign . Well I think the more we hear that's negative about President Trump and the more that comes out about the situation with Ukraine. Those are not helpful things for his campaign . There's no question about that. But I think we have to take a step back for a minute and realize that for most Americans their view of Donald Trump is relatively predetermined . Additional things we may hear in the impeachment proceedings may affect things slightly on the margins. But I don't see that impacting what I think is gonna be an economy driven election . The state of the economy is ultimately what's going to affect people's views of President Trump and whether they vote for him or not. And so in that sense it's fair to worry if and if one is an investor for example about the impact of a Warren presidency. But I still see that being a relatively less likely event. First of all she's got to get through a very competitive primary. And secondly she's got to beat Donald Trump during a time of relative economic success here. What's really interesting though is that polls are now showing that there's more American public support for the impeachment process than there was for the Moller investigation. Does this change the dynamics a little bit here. Again I think it's important to understand that the national polling on impeachment is one thing. And you're absolutely right Cheri. There is more public support for that . But if you look at specific state by state polling on impeachment we've started to see some of this come out now in states that are crucial to President Trump's re-election like Michigan like Wisconsin and other states like that. What we're seeing is that there is support for the inquiry. There's support for people learning more about it. But still a majority oppose removing President Trump from office which suggests to me at least that the support for impeachment is much wider than it is deep. In other words if you look at these states specifically there is much less interest in removing President Trump. And that gives one a sense that he's still doing relatively better in these swing states that will determine next year's election when it comes to those swing states or Trump districts as well. How big of a risk is the fact that the Democrats are going on the record with a public impeachment vote when there are lawmakers that have to run in those states or districts. Well this is precisely why Nancy Pelosi has wanted to avoid this public vote for as long as possible because it does put vulnerable Democrats on the hook. They've got to be on the record now stating whether they support or oppose the impeachment process. And that's going to be very challenging in districts where things look very marginal. You look at some of these districts in California and Southern California where Democrats won by a very small margin that vote on impeachment could affect their ability to get reelected. So this is something Nancy Pelosi has wanted to avoid. And the question going forward is how these votes are going to impact these marginal members particularly on the House side .

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How Would the Impeachment Inquiry Affect the Election?

Lanhee Chen, director of domestic policy studies at Hoover Institution, talks about the House of Representatives' plan to take its first vote to support the ongoing impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump and the potential implications for the presidential election. Chen speaks with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: Bloomberg)

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