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  • 00:00I know you've mentioned in your notes that that you've got a theme here or a basket of I guess you would call assets or stocks where it's Fortress America right. Is there anything that can steal investors from all the chaos that is going on politically Well look I think to some extent if you're looking for themes around the changes to the administration the new policies and you'd be looking forward to American companies with close enough to 90 95 percent of revenues that are domestically based Now clearly there's been a huge outperformance by global companies with companies with that are globalized. Obviously such as you know the Amazons the apples the visa et cetera. So maybe there is a shift to potentially a shift yet to come or rotation into these more domestic focused U.S. stocks but I think it's actually a bit early just yet. Clearly we've been waiting or seeing policies coming through that have been around these more isolationist type of policies around immigration and trade . Yeah. And we've seen very little if not if not none. No detail on tax cuts and infrastructure spend. Well what we know from from President Donald Trump that that he's that he's all about you know America first. Right. That's what dictating his policy. So where would you focus then. I mean are there companies you know when you say domestically focused stocks I mean are there companies in this basket of Fortress America that you need to put in there that got that kind of reflect that hole America first outlook from the White House . Yeah I'd like to take a step back here because I think we've got to really look at what fundamentals are happening and clearly we entered 2016 with some reasonable momentum in manufacturing services and even construction PMI. So the underlying outlook for global growth is actually modestly improving and we've still got a reasonable outlook for China as well. We're forecasting six and a half percent growth. So I think that the American plays interesting but I think it's possibly too early in terms of we need to see some real details and policies before making those sorts of decisions. So our our outlook still very much is it is a positive one in regards to markets more likely for the second half of this year . So we're seeing a little bit in terms of global growth some improvement there MARTIN You also mentioned about the uncertainty regarding some of the Trump policies and some of the reason why so many investors are piling into U.S. equities right now. So is the market still gonna be focused now and at least in the short term when it comes to central banks then. Because you know there seems like one other thing when you take a look at B.O. J. The Fed as well as a beauty this week is on whether there's going to signal a tightening Yeah I think it's way too early to be talking of a significant changes by central banks at this stage we're not looking for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in this week although we do have an expectation of at least two rate rises this year. I think the Fed's going to be looking to see what the policies from the Trump administration emerge as seeing impacts on growth and obviously on inflation. Now markets are expecting a rise in inflation later this year on the back of that but you know we've seen a global share markets rally so strongly since the US election it's no doubt that we're going to see some put a period of pause consolidation and modest modest pullback. Our view is certainly do be looking to be buying the dips but again I think we need to be seeing some more detail as far as central banks are concerned and our very own Reserve Bank here meets next week and we are expecting no change from them either. So I think it's business as usual. It's going to be more important to be looking at the statements from those central banks in regards to future growth and the outlook on inflation. Just looking closely you're closer to home for you. MARTIN What are you looking for at opportunities in the Aussie markets because we do see a little bit of resilience when it comes to energy right now as well and the Aussie dollar to kind of fluctuating a bit . This dollar strength Yeah. Look we we do see the Aussie sharemarket going higher through this year it's really driven by improved earnings outlook last couple of years. Australian corporates had the opportunity to cut costs and improve the balance sheet but also we've had very little benefit from tailwinds on the economy and we're looking for the Australian economy to start to pick up second half. So earnings will start to improve in this reporting by .
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Macquarie's Lakos: Global Growth Outlook Improving

  • Daybreak Asia

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January 31st, 2017, 12:44 AM GMT+0000

Martin Lakos, Macquarie Wealth Management division director, discusses his strategy for investing in global markets with Bloomberg's Betty Liu and Yvonne Man on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)


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