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00:00MINISTER ON A SPENDING DEAL. WE'RE BACK WITH MIJ RAHMAN AND ERIK NIELSEN. LET'S GO BACK TO GREECE. MENTIONING ABOUT THE FACT THAT IF SOMEONE, ANGELA MERKEL WHO IS SEEN AS THE GROWN-UP IN THE ROOM, SHE HAS KEPT THE DOOR OPEN TO ALL POSSIBILITIES. IF SOMEONE ELSE COMES, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR GREECE? DOES GREECE GO BACK TO SQUARE ONE? MIJ: THE IMS CANNOT AGREE. AND UNTIL THEY AGREE, THEIR SOLUTION IS SIMPLY TO ASK A GREECE TO IMPLEMENT MORE AUSTERITY. AND AT SOME POINT, THEY REACHED THE LIMIT. I THINK WE'RE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A DRIFT SCENARIO FOR THE END OF THE YEAR WHEN THEY WILL BRUSH UP AGAINST THE REPAYMENTS. THEY NEED MORE MONEY TO PAY THE ECB AND IT WILL TAKE ABOUT SIX MONTHS TO COME TO THAT AGREEMENT. FRANCINE: WHAT IS THE BIGGEST RISK? IF MARINE LE PEN COMES INTO POWER, IS THERE REFORM FOR RESTRUCTURE? DO WE NEED IMPETUS LIKE THAT? [LAUGHTER] ERIK: I COULDN'T HELP MYSELF. MIJ: DONALD TRUMP HAS TALKED ABOUT THE EURO IN COMPETITIVE TERMS. HE HAS TALKED ABOUT THE EU UNRAVELING. HE IS NOT AN ALLY. HE DOESN'T WANT THE IMS INVOLVED IN FINANCING GREECE. FRANCINE: ERIK NIELSEN DISAGREES, OBVIOUSLY. TOM: WHAT IS THE TO DO LIST FOR THE ADULTS IN THE ROOM IN GREECE? IT IS FESTERED. GETTING DOWN THE DEBT -- WE ARE NOT THERE YET. ERIK: I THINK YOU HAVE TO GET THROUGH THE GERMAN ELECTIONS. AND THEN YOU DO IT AS A CONTENTION DEAL. REMEMBER, THIS IS ALREADY BEEN WRITTEN DOWN TO A LARGE EXTENT. BUT IT HAS TO BE CLEANED UP AND WE WILL HAVE IT SOON ENOUGH. TOM: I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE OPENING COMMENTS. I WAS IN ONE OF THE BEST GREEK RESTAURANTS AND THE OWNER WENT NUTS OVER CYPRUS AND THIS TENSION. COME ON, WE HAVE BEEN DOING THIS SINCE 1974. IS THIS THE SAME OLD, SAME OLD? IS THERE NEW TERRITORY? MIJ: IT IS NO LONGER ABOUT THE GREEK LEADERS OR THE TURKISH SUPREME LEADERS. HEARD ON -- THE BIG PROBLEM IS THAT -- TOM: WHAT DOES HE NEED IN CYPRUS? MIJ: HE NEEDS A CONTINUED ROLE FOR TURKEY INSIDE THE GUARANTEED FRAMEWORK. AND IT WILL HAVE TO ACCEPT THAT CUT ON THE DEBT THAT IT IS EXPECT TO. AND IN ORDER TO DO THAT, THEY WANT TO CONTRIBUTE TO ROLLOVER THE SECURITY FRAME. AND IS THAT ACCEPTABLE TO GREECE? I THINK NOT. FRANCINE: AND THEY ARE SITTING ON SO MUCH NATURAL GAS. $50 BILLION OF OFFSHORE GAS WHICH MEANS THAT EUROPE WOULD BE RELIANT ON RUSSIAN GAS. SO DO WE NEED A SOLUTION IN CYPRUS TO MAKE SURE THAT THE WINTER MONTHS ARE MORE SECURE? ERIK: I DON'T THINK WE NEED IT FOR THAT. I THINK WE NEED A DEAL BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN LINGERING FOR SO MANY YEARS. AND IT WAS ONE OF THOSE WEIRD THINGS THAT WHEN THE CYPRUS RETURN TO THE EU, WE SAW THE TERRITORY. AND I THINK WHAT YOU SAID IS EXACTLY RIGHT. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A DOMESTIC AGENDA. THIS IS WHAT THE ISSUE IS ABOUT.

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Rahman: Trump's Not an Ally to Europe on Greece

Mujtaba Rahman, Europe practice head at Eurasia Group, and Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit Group, look at Greek's debt path and continued tensions with Turkey over Cyprus. They speak on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

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