More Ukrainians Are Settling Abroad as War Grinds On

By Patrick Donahue and Piotr Skolimowski

Graphics by Denise Lu and Marie Patino

February 25, 2023, 1:00 AM EST

“We never thought we were going to stay for so long,” said Zoia Trushchenkova, 67, recalling her harrowing escape from the western Ukrainian city of Ratne 12 months ago. “The plan was to make sure our children were safe here and return, but it doesn’t seem like this war is going to end any time soon.”

Trushchenkova is one of more than 8 million Ukrainians — mostly women and children — who fled the country in the wake of the Russian invasion. Her family’s escape included a 48-hour wait at the border crossing in Ukraine’s Zosin-Ustyluh.

In what the United Nations calls Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II, millions formed long queues to travel by car, train and on foot across borders to states including Romania, Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia. Most stayed in Poland with the rest fanning out across Europe with Germany, the Czech Republic and Italy as the most popular havens.

Trushchenkova and 10 members of her family — five other adults and five children — took their toothbrushes and some jewelry, and fled to neighboring Poland, which as of January was home to 1.5 million refugees from the conflict. A doctor, Zoia, now works in a private medical clinic in Warsaw. Some 6 million people are internally displaced, sheltering in the safest parts of the country, according to the UN Refugee Agency.

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Even after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 many people never believed President Vladimir Putin would launch a full-scale invasion. When he did, on Feb. 24, 2022, the assumption was that the war would be short lived. Yet Ukrainian forces, under President Volodymr Zelenskiy, mounted a spectacular defense, with military and economic support from Western allies. The prediction now is that the fighting could last for a while longer.

As will the economic damage. Ukraine already had one of the fastest shrinking populations in the world. The war has tipped it into a spiral of demographic decline that is likely to harm its future growth prospects. In his Friday press conference on Feb. 24, Zelenskiy implored Ukrainians to return once it’s safe to do so. “Our state cannot be powerful without those who are abroad, with all the love for all the countries, remember that you are Ukrainians,” he said. “Return after victory, it is necessary to restore the state.”

The Trushchenkovs were among the lucky ones. They escaped together. Many others were separated, police in various countries have reported that some children and women fell prey to traffickers, while many older people and others with disabilities were unable to flee. Today the family is dispersed across three countries after struggling with the language and failing to find work. Zoia’s niece returned with her children to Lutsk, the same western city in Ukraine they lived in before the invasion. Her daughter Tetiana went to Italy. The other, Olga, stayed in Poland. Zoia, her husband Volodymr and 91-year-old mother moved into a one-bedroom public housing apartment above a KFC restaurant in downtown Warsaw.

Zoia Trushchenkova and her family, taken before the Russian invasion, in their hometown of Irpin. Photographer: Piotr Malecki

Many refugees were made to feel welcome by governments and citizens in a region where the specter of Russian expansion is part of the collective memory. Some opened up their homes to strangers they often could not communicate with, donating clothes and food. It was altogether a very different response in these countries to the millions of mostly Muslim and male refugees who fled Middle East war zones in 2015.

Source: UNHCR survey of 43,571 individuals between May and November 2022

US President Joe Biden paid tribute to those who welcomed Ukrainian refugees in Warsaw on Tuesday. “We stand with the millions of refugees of this war who found a welcome in Europe and the United States, particularly here in Poland,” he told the cheering crowd. “You literally embraced them.”

Yet reports of abuse, lower pay or frustration have also emerged. And there’s no guarantee the welcome won’t fade as it did for asylum-seekers during the 2015 crisis.

Billions of dollars in government assistance fuels populist voices. In the Czech Republic, a former premier built his bid to become president on criticizing what he called over-generous aid to Ukraine. In Estonia, which holds elections next month, the far-right party has risen to second in opinion polls. Located on Russia’s doorstep, it has centered much of its campaign on questioning the generosity of help for Ukraine amid an unprecedented cost of living crisis and inflation above 20%. In Poland, the state has started to cut back some of the aid it provided in the first few months of the conflict.

For the Trushchenkov family, Poland was a natural destination. Some members had worked in the country before, like hundreds of thousands of other Ukrainians have been doing since early last decade — on construction sites, in daycare facilities and hospitals filling the roles left by Poles who left for Europe’s west.

Note: Numbers are the latest available for each country. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000. Nearly 3 million additional individuals in Russia as of October 2022 are not shown. These may include individuals who fled in any possible direction, irrespective of their preferences, or those who have family or other links in Russia, according to the UNHCR.

Source: UNHCR.

Back in August when the family first spoke to Bloomberg, they were collecting 500 zloty ($108) per child each month from the government. Within six months of their arrival, life got tougher. Their rent rose by a third to 8,000 zloty and they had to look for a smaller apartment after some family members moved out. In their public housing studio, only a bookcase separates their bed from that of the grandmother, who spends her days knitting socks for soldiers fighting on the frontline. Language isn’t a barrier, but red tape means Zoia can only be employed as a medical assistant while her husband works in a shelter for Ukrainian women and children. They long for their home in Ratne and hope to save enough money to buy a house in the Warsaw suburbs. For now, though, they need to support Olga, whose salary as an English teacher doesn’t cover the cost of the apartment she and her two children are renting in the capital.

“People in Poland showed us friendship and help,” Zoia said, admitting she was surprised by the warm welcome. “I’m just a retired doctor and yet they gave me everything so that I can support myself. We are treated as part of the society.”

Yet Zoia, like the vast majority, 85%, of Ukrainian refugees in Poland, wants to return home. Only 10%, however, plan to do so in the near future, according to a survey from Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Svetlana Gerasymenko at home in Wuppertal, Germany, on Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023. Photographer: Ben Kilb/Bloomberg

Svitlana Gerasymenko, 38, worked in advertising in Kyiv before the war. When the explosions hit the capital a year ago, she fled with a friend by car, embarking on what would become a 2,500 kilometer (1,500 mile) odyssey that took her across the border into Romania. After stops in Bratislava and Dresden, she arrived in the western German city of Wuppertal, where contacts offered her lodgings. “I can’t even describe the shock,” of fleeing war, she said. While Gerasymenko misses Kyiv, and said life abroad can be painful, the prospect of rolling blackouts and bomb shelters keeps her away. “I’m planning to stay in Germany, in Europe — I’m looking for opportunities.”

A Quarter of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany Want to Stay Permanently

Share of Ukrainian refugees surveyed who want to stay:

Source: German Federal Institute for Population Research.

Under European Union rules, Ukrainians don’t need to apply for asylum but instead have a right to live and work in the bloc. More than a quarter of those in Germany plan to stay for good, according to a survey commissioned by the German government. The demographic suggests a highly employable Ukrainian population that would help redress perennial labor shortages — once they learn the language, fewer than 4% can speak passable German but about half are taking courses. Like Gerasymenko, who has degrees in engineering and marketing, 72% hold a university degree. And while only 17% are currently working, some 78% said they expect to find a job.

Source: UNHCR survey of 17,750 individuals between October 2022 and February 2023

Some frontline EU states inundated by arrivals have seen refugees move quickly on. UNHCR numbers show that a total of almost 1.2 million crossed the border into Slovakia, which set up welcome centers on its eastern border with Ukraine, but only about 106,000 remain. Hungary to the south has about 33,000. Romania, which shares the longest EU border with Ukraine, has more than 100,000.

Far from the front lines, France, Italy, Spain and the UK count more than 100,000 war refugees each, according to UNHCR figures.

In Poland, some 70% of Ukrainian refugees are estimated to be working. Ukrainians also accounted for 45% of all the new foreign companies set up there last year.

But finding a job can only go so far. Zoia and her husband financially support their other daughter, an English teacher who lives in a smaller Warsaw apartment with two children. “We’re not going to leave our daughter alone because she has it tough and she can barely make ends meet,” said Zoia. “I really miss home — but I’m not going to leave my daughter alone. We’re staying until the war is over.”

More Ukrainians Are Settling Abroad as War Grinds On

Reasons for Changing Country

Where Ukrainian Refugees Are Displaced in Europe

A Quarter of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany Want to Stay Permanently

The Majority of Refugees are Women and Children