Europe’s Energy Crunch
Europe Is Amazingly Quick to Cut Fossil Fuels When It Tries
Europe achieved dramatic energy savings last year and is likely to demonstrate once again that it is capable of of taking bold steps when faced with sufficient pressure.
A new report says the region will see the use of fossil fuels to generate power plummet by 20% in 2023, the steepest drop on record and double the decline observed in 2020, when the pandemic shut down swaths of economic activity. Natural gas-fired generation will fall the fastest, according to Ember, a UK-based energy think tank.
The forecasts are a reflection of Europe’s race to find alternative energy sources after Russia cut gas flows in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. While that temporarily led to greater reliance on coal and contributed to an increase in emissions last year, solar and wind energy have surged to fill in much of the gap — and also overtook gas for the first time last year.
“There is now a focus on rapidly cutting gas demand — at the same time as phasing out coal. This means a massive scale-up in clean energy is on its way,” Ember said in a report published Tuesday. “The full scale of the transition becomes clear” this year, it said.
While growing renewable capacity is helping Europe’s shift, lower demand is a key reason why the energy crisis didn’t pause the region’s transition to cleaner fuels, Ember said. Electricity demand dropped nearly 8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, close to the roughly 10% decline seen in the second quarter of 2020, when Europe was saw some of its harshest pandemic lockdowns.
Even Europe’s return to coal last year was less pronounced than initially anticipated by observers. Generation actually fell in the last four months of 2022 compared to a year earlier — partially due to mild weather that reduced the need for heating, but also because of energy saving efforts.
Renewable Power Overtook Gas in EU's Power Mix
Solar and wind produced a record 22% of the EU’s electricity last year
This year, wind and solar generation is set to hit a new record. Ember expects nuclear generation to remain relatively flat, as the continued phase-out of German reactors offsets the return of French units. It also says hydropower should rise by about 40 terawatt-hours, after a historic drought dried up critical resources in 2022.
All of that should contribute to a substantial decline in fossil fuel use in 2023. As the Ember report notes, electricity demand is perhaps the biggest uncertainty. But if the past few months have been any guide, Europe can make very fast progress when it tries.
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