Republicans Battle Each Other, Democrats in Tossup Georgia Races

By Billy House

October 15, 2020, 4:00 AM EDT

The Cook Political Report on Oct. 13, 2020

Republicans are battling among themselves as well as with Democrats to keep both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats, and the potential for a delayed outcome in the state could leave control of the chamber in doubt until January.

Georgia has an unusual double bill of Senate contests on the November ballot with an additional twist. One of the races is a 20-candidate special election that is certain to result in a Jan. 5 runoff between the top two finishers. The other race also could be forced into a second round.

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The state has reliably sent Republicans to the Senate for almost two decades and hasn’t gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992. But the rapid growth in new residents moving from other states to the Atlanta metropolitan region, which accounts for almost half of the votes in Georgia, has caused a churn in Peach State politics.

President Donald Trump won Georgia in 2016 by a narrower margin than the last four Republicans on presidential ballots. This year, Democrat Joe Biden is running even or slightly ahead of Trump in most polls, though a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday showed him with a 51% to 44% lead. Both Senate contests have been moved to the toss-up category by the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

“It’s a story of an increasingly diverse and increasingly competitive state. Democrats are looking for this year to be the tipping point,” said Kerwin Swint, a professor of politics at Kennesaw State University outside Atlanta.

Having both Georgia Senate seats in play is a bonus for Democrats, who are seeking to overturn the 53-47 Republican majority in the chamber. Democrats have been hoping for a net gain of three seats, which would give them the majority if Biden wins. But three weeks from Election Day, independent and party analysts increasingly see the potential for Democrats to gain more.

Incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue is running for re-election against Democrat Jon Ossoff as part of the regular Senate election cycle. Multiple recent polls show the race essentially tied, while the Quinnipiac poll had Ossoff with 51% to Perdue’s 45%. Both parties are pouring money into the state, which could be pivotal in determining control of the Senate.

Ossoff Outspending Perdue on Ads in Georgia

Past advertising spending and future reservations by candidate in the 2020 Senate race.

Ossoff
Perdue

Source: Advertising Analytics

In the second race, Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed last December by the state’s governor, is seeking voter approval to serve out the final two years of Republican Johnny Isakson’s term, who retired because of poor health.

But she’s in a bitter competition with Republican Representative Doug Collins. That has opened the door for Democrat Raphael Warnock, the poll leader among eight Democrats in the race. But with so many candidates on the ballot, no one is expected to garner the majority of votes cast, triggering a runoff. The Cook Report on Tuesday shifted the race from lean Republican to toss up.

Interest in the 2020 election is high in Georgia. The Secretary of State’s office said voter registration has hit a record. On Monday, the first day of early in-person voting, there were long lines to cast ballots. About 128,000 people turned out, higher than any previous first day of voting, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

From left to right: Raphael Warnock at a campaign event in Powder Springs, Georgia, Doug Collins speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference and Kelly Loeffler speaks at a campaign event in Peachtree Corners, Georgia. — From left to right: Raphael Warnock at a campaign event in Powder Springs, Georgia, Doug Collins speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference, and Kelly Loeffler speaks at a campaign event in Peachtree Corners, Georgia.

Photographers: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg, Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg, Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg

Atlanta’s Democratic mayor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, said the twin races underscore the potential for a seismic shift in state and national politics.

“This is an opportunity for us not just to just change the landscape of representation in Georgia, but to change the landscape of our nation—two Senate seats,” Bottoms said at a news conference with Ossoff and Warnock last week.

Perdue, Loeffler and Collins have aligned themselves closely with Trump.

Perdue, 70, is seeking a second six year-term. His challenger, Ossoff, 33, is chief executive of an investigative television production company, who narrowly lost a high-profile Atlanta-area House special election in 2017.

Their contest has largely followed the script of both national parties in this election.

Sen. David Perdue meets with U.S. Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 30.

Photographer: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Perdue has defended his record and Trump’s, saying in a debate with Ossoff on Monday that before the coronavirus pandemic hit, the U.S. was experiencing “the greatest economic turnaround in history.” He also said Ossoff would be a “rubber stamp for that radical left movement in the Democratic Party.”

Ossoff has lashed out at what he described as corruption in Washington and slammed Perdue for his “blind” endorsement of Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett. He said the pandemic should be a wake-up call for those who doubt the necessity of ensuring all Americans have health insurance.

The race includes Libertarian Shane Hazel, raising the possibility that neither Perdue nor Ossoff will reach the 50% threshold. If the outcome of even just one of these Georgia contests is delayed until a January runoff, the country could be left in suspense over which party controls the Senate, unless Democrats are able to get a clear majority in other competitive states.

“It’s 2020 so why shouldn’t we expect the nightmare scenario: both races end in a runoff with the Senate majority hanging in the balance,” said Rick Dent, a longtime political consultant who served as an aid to the late Zell Miller when he was Georgia’s governor.

Jon Ossoff speaks to volunteers and supporters at a campaign event in Stone Mountain, Georgia, on Saturday, Sept. 26.

Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg

Loeffler, 49, was appointed to Georgia’s other Senate seat by Governor Brian Kemp in part to counter the drift toward Democrats by female suburban voters.

But the wealthy former financial executive and co-owner of the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream found herself confronting an aggressive intra-party challenge from Collins, 54, a staunch conservative who helped lead the GOP’s defense of Trump against impeachment by House Democrats.

Loeffler has to try to outflank Collins on the right by boasting in ads she’s “more conservative than Attila the Hun.”

Warnock, 51, has gained amid the infighting. In the RealClear Politics poll average, Warnock has 30% support to 24% for Loeffler and 22% for Collins. The Quinnipiac poll showed an even wider spread with Warnock supported by 41%, Collins 22% and Loeffler 20%. None of the other candidates reached double digits.

Although there are concerns among Republicans whether Loeffler or Collins can move more to the middle in a runoff against Warnock, the cumulative support for the GOP candidates shows the party’s strength.

”I think ultimately it goes red,” former Republican Representative and Trump campaign surrogate Jack Kingston said. “But we’re going to have to earn it, we can’t sleep. We can’t count on anything.”

Republicans Battle Each Other, Democrats in Tossup Georgia Races

2020 Senate Races

Ossoff Outspending Perdue on Ads in Georgia