A Power Shift Is Under Way in Duterte’s Game of Thrones

The Duterte clan runs the southern city of Davao, the largest metropolitan area outside greater Manila. In the 1960s, lawyer Vicente Duterte entered politics and became governor of the wider Davao province, an agricultural region roughly the size of Israel.

His son, Rodrigo Duterte, became mayor of Davao City in 1988 and earned a reputation as a tough-talking crime buster that propelled him to win the presidency in 2016. Now 74, Duterte’s three oldest children notched landslide victories in the midterms. His eldest daughter, Sara, is increasingly seen as a possible successor for the presidency in 2022 after her Senate slate won nine of 12 available seats.

The Marcos clan has long been influential in the northern province of Ilocos Norte, and won its first congressional seat in 1925. The family’s clout peaked during the reign of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the Philippines’ longest-serving president, who held on to power for two decades by declaring Martial Law. The World Bank estimates his family amassed up to $10 billion in ill-gotten wealth during his dictatorship—only a portion of which has been recovered.

Despite Marcos’s ouster and his family’s exile, the clan didn’t stay on the sidelines for long. They returned to the country and reclaimed control of Ilocos Norte, holding the governor and congressman posts since 1998. They gave financial support to Duterte’s presidential bid, and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. narrowly lost the race for vice president. He’s challenging that in court, and Duterte has said he would hand over the reins if the late dictator’s son wins.

Hailing from the industrial city of Las Piñas south of the capital, the clan boasts the Philippines’ richest man: Manuel Villar Jr. The self-made businessman and property tycoon lost a bid for the presidency in 2010, but was among Duterte’s early backers when he ran in 2016. The family has enjoyed a strong relationship with the president ever since.

In the midterms, Manuel’s wife Cynthia topped the Senate rankings on a platform of job generation, overtaking consistent survey front-runner Grace Poe. His daughter, Camille, also won a seat in Congress to represent their hometown, while his son Mark currently heads the Public Works Department.

The Cayetano clan first entered politics in 1984, when its patriarch—a lawyer who became popular by giving legal advice on television—became a congressman. For the past few decades, three of his children and one daughter-in-law have swapped government seats in the city of Taguig southeast of the capital, where a former military base was converted to an upscale business district.

Now aligned with Duterte after Alan Peter Cayetano ran as his vice presidential candidate in 2016, the political dynasty won four government posts in the midterm elections.

The Aquino dynasty hails from Tarlac province, roughly a two-hour drive north of Manila, where it built up wealth from sugarcane plantations. It’s by far one of the most prolific families, with two ex-presidents and the late senator Benigno Aquino Jr., whose assassination sparked the People Power Revolution that overthrew Marcos.

After the midterms, however, the family will not hold a major elective post for the first time since 1998. Duterte has repeatedly criticized his predecessor Benigno III and his allies who make up the opposition. While Paolo Benigno IV was the highest-ranking opposition member in the Senate race, he missed out on the 12 available seats by about 400,000 votes, giving Duterte a historic big win in the upper house.

The family’s political legacy dates back to the 20th century. American colonizers appointed Sergio Osmeña Sr. as governor of Cebu, a island province in central Philippines whose ports drove the region’s economy. He would later go on to serve in both houses of Congress before becoming president.

The family’s third-generation members failed to win their races in this year’s vote, though—even losing in their traditional stronghold. With no immediate heirs poised to enter politics, this dynasty may be on the way out.

Patriarch Joseph Estrada rose to popularity as an action star in the 1960s, helping him forge a career in local government in the wealthy enclave of San Juan City in the capital. He would later become vice president and then president of the Philippines.

The Estrada clan did poorly in the midterms. Joseph lost his bid for a third term as mayor of Manila, while granddaughter Janella’s defeat in the San Juan mayoralty race marks the first time the family will not hold the post since 1992. Half-brothers JV and Jinggoy were pitted against each other in the Senate elections, and both lost.

The Binay clan has controlled the country’s central business district, Makati City, for most of the past three decades. In 1988, patriarch Jejomar—a human rights lawyer during the Marcos dictatorship—was elected mayor. He later won a six-year term as vice president in 2010, but lost to Duterte in the 2016 presidential race.

The midterms dashed Binay’s hopes for a political comeback, as he suffered a shock defeat in the race to represent Makati in Congress. A public rift emerged in the family as well, with two of his children running against each other in the city’s mayoralty contest. In the end, his second eldest daughter Abigail won his endorsement and the race over his only son. His eldest child Nancy also managed to take the last Senate seat.