These Nine Charts Show Just How Deeply Brexit Has Divided Britain
The U.K.’s departure from the European Union is fast approaching and as politicians prepare to vote on the divorce terms agreed upon by Prime Minister Theresa May and Brussels, opinion polls show the public remains just as divided over Brexit.
That has major implications for all parties especially if, as expected, May can’t secure parliamentary backing for her deal. Other options—a no-deal Brexit, delaying Brexit or even staying in the EU—do not have a clear majority among voters.
2016 REFERENDUM RESULT
52% LEAVE
48% REMAIN
JAN.4 POLL OF POLLS
47% LEAVE
53% REMAIN
2016 REFERENDUM RESULT
52% LEAVE
48% REMAIN
JAN.4 POLL OF POLLS
47% LEAVE
53% REMAIN
Source: NatCen Social Research
The government’s approval rating has languished amid the turmoil of Brexit
46%
32%
24%
46%
32%
24%
Poll question: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied wth the way the government is running the country? Satisfied respondents represented.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative Remainers back May’s proposed deal—but they’re outnumbered by Leavers who oppose it
SUPPORT
DON’T KNOW
OPPOSE
CONSERVATIVE
REMAINERS
52%
24
23
(433)
CONSERVATIVE
38
17
45
LEAVERS
(1,140)
SUPPORT
DON’T KNOW
OPPOSE
CONSERVATIVE
REMAINERS
52%
24
23
(433)
CONSERVATIVE
38
17
45
LEAVERS
(1,140)
SUPPORT
DON’T KNOW
OPPOSE
CONSERVATIVE
REMAINERS
52%
24
23
(433)
CONSERVATIVE
LEAVERS
38
17
45
(1,140)
Poll question: A draft deal on the terms of Brexit has been agreed between the government and the European Union. From what you have seen or heard about the deal so far, do you support or oppose it?
Source: YouGov survey of 4,971 adults conducted Nov. 26-29. Only Conservative voters represented.
Given the choice in a second referendum of staying in the EU or leaving on May’s divorce terms, only 55% of Leave voters in 2016 say they would opt for her deal
VOTED LEAVE
VOTED REMAIN
Stay in the EU
12%
83%
Leave on the Brexit terms
negotiated by the government
55%
7%
Would not vote
15%
2%
7%
Don’t know
16%
VOTED LEAVE
VOTED REMAIN
Stay in the EU
12%
83%
Leave on the Brexit
terms negotiated by
the government
55%
7%
Would not vote
15%
2%
7%
Don’t know
16%
LEAVE
REMAIN
Stay in the EU
12%
83%
Leave on the Brexit
terms negotiated by
the government
55%
7%
Would not vote
15%
2%
7%
Don’t know
16%
Poll question: If there were a public vote, and the choices were to stay in the EU or leave on the Brexit terms negotiated by the government, how would you vote?
Many of those polled on both sides would like their member of Parliament to vote against May’s deal
VOTED LEAVE
VOTED REMAIN
Your MP to vote for the deal
34%
22%
Your MP to vote against the deal
37%
48%
Don’t know
29%
29%
VOTED LEAVE
VOTED REMAIN
Your MP to vote for
the deal
34%
22%
Your MP to vote against
the deal
37%
48%
Don’t know
29%
29%
LEAVE
REMAIN
Your MP to vote for
the deal
34%
22%
Your MP to vote against
the deal
37%
48%
Don’t know
29%
29%
Poll question: From what you have heard about the government’s proposed Brexit deal, do you want...?
If Parliament votes down the Brexit deal next week, almost a third of voters see a second referendum as the right course of action, closely followed by leaving the EU without a further vote on it. But there’s no majority for either option
A public vote on leaving on the terms of the exit deal vs. remaining in the European Union
A public vote on leaving on the terms of the exit deal vs. leaving the European Union without a deal
The U.K. should leave without a deal with the European Union without any further votes on it
20%
12%
29%
The government should go back to the European Union and try to negotiate a better deal in the time before the U.K. leaves the EU in March 2019
Don’t know
A general election takes place so that whoever wins can try to resolve things
15%
13%
11%
A public vote on leaving on the terms of the exit deal vs. remaining in the European Union
A public vote on leaving on the terms of the exit deal vs. leaving the European Union without a deal
20%
12%
The U.K. should leave without a deal with the European Union without any further votes on it
Don’t know
29%
15%
The government should go back to the European Union and try to negotiate a better deal in the time before the U.K. leaves the EU in March 2019
A general election takes place so that whoever wins can try to resolve things
13%
11%
Poll question: In the event of Parliament voting down the Brexit deal that the government has negotiated with the European Union, what do you think should happen next?
Those who voted Leave would prefer the final decision to be handled in Parliament
VOTED LEAVE
VOTED REMAIN
57%
24%
MPs voting in Parliament
The public voting in a
new referendum
21%
61%
Don’t know
22%
15%
VOTED LEAVE
VOTED REMAIN
57%
24%
MPs voting in Parliament
The public voting in a
new referendum
21%
61%
Don’t know
22%
15%
LEAVE
REMAIN
57%
24%
MPs voting in Parliament
The public voting in a
new referendum
21%
61%
Don’t know
22%
15%
Poll question: Do you think the final decision about Brexit should be made by MPs voting in Parliament or the public voting in a new referendum?
Respondents see the U.K. leaving the EU without an agreement in March as the most likely scenario
Britain leaves the European Union in March 2019 with a deal
Britain leaves the European Union in March 2019 without a deal
Not sure
44%
19%
19%
Britain does not leave the European Union in March 2019
17%
Britain leaves the European Union in March 2019 without a deal
Britain leaves the European Union in March 2019 with a deal
44%
19%
Not sure
Britain does not leave the European Union in March 2019
17%
19%
Poll question: Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely in March 2019?
According to Smarkets exchange, there is a 65 percent implied probability of Brexit not happening by March 29
65%
43%
65%
43%
Note: Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage
Source: Smarkets
The splits look destined to endure regardless of the political outcome of the next three months.