Trump Campaigns Where He’s Loved the Most

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President Donald Trump has embraced his role as campaigner-in-chief to rally support for Republican candidates around the country ahead of the midterm elections. Since the beginning of August, he will have hosted more than 30 rallies for congressional and gubernatorial candidates. And with control of the House and Senate in the balance, his campaign schedule shows an increased sense of urgency: He’s held campaign events more days than not in October and has 11 more rallies planned in the final week before next Tuesday’s elections, including three scheduled the day before voters head to the polls.

Many hotly contested races this cycle are in states Trump won in 2016. But even in those states, he has tended to host rallies on friendly terrain in ruby-red communities. His rallies for Republican Senate candidates in Tennessee and Pennsylvania, for instance, were in parts of the state Trump handily won in the 2016 election, far from Democratic-leaning urban centers. But in his final campaign stops, the president will visit more blue terrain: Five of his 10 November rallies are in urban centers and college towns that voted for Clinton in 2016.

Where Trump Has Held And Will Hold Campaign Rallies, Since Aug. 1👆

2016 margin of victory in county of rally, percentage points
Source: Bloomberg reporting

For the most part, Trump’s campaign schedule has taken him to the most competitive races—those rated as toss-ups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. But there are some exceptions: Trump has held two rallies since Aug. 1 for Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Lou Barletta, who is seen as an underdog in his race against incumbent Democrat Bob Casey. Some contests have tightened since Trump originally visited, including Senate contests in Montana and Mississippi.

Competitiveness of Races Where Trump Has Campaigned for Republicans

Cook Political Report score at time of event
Current score
Includes only past rallies
Sources: Bloomberg research, Cook Political Report

Trump insists his appearances and endorsements are helping candidates. Republicans are betting Trump’s ability to motivate the base outweighs his unpopularity among potential swing voters. But just in case that bet doesn’t pay off on Election Day, Trump told the Associated Press he will not take responsibility if the GOP loses the House.