Trump Is Itching for a Fight at NATO
When Donald Trump barrels into Brussels this week demanding that NATO allies boost their defense spending, the response will be: We already are. But for the U.S. president, military budgets are only one line of attack. From “easy to win’’ trade wars to the system of setting oil prices, Trump is on a mission to rip up the world order and remake it in what he sees as America’s interests. That includes targeting multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven. As Trump prepares to meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders studying the president’s tweets would be forgiven for wondering if NATO is next in his sights.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The United States is spending far more on NATO than any other Country. This is not fair, nor is it acceptable. While these countries have been increasing their contributions since I took office, they must do much more. Germany is at 1%, the U.S. is at 4%, and NATO benefits...... Europe far more than it does the U.S. By some accounts, the U.S. is paying for 90% of NATO, with many countries nowhere close to their 2% commitment. On top of this the European Union has a Trade Surplus of $151 Million with the U.S., with big Trade Barriers on U.S. goods. NO!
4:55 AM - 9 July 2018
Germany: In the Eye of the Storm
1.24% $45.5B 🚹180K
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
....Germany pays 1% (slowly) of GDP towards NATO, while we pay 4% of a MUCH larger GDP. Does anybody believe that makes sense? We protect Europe (which is good) at great financial loss, and then get unfairly clobbered on Trade. Change is coming!
9:42 PM - 10 Jun 2018
Angela Merkel is resigned to the fact that there’s no pleasing Trump. From trade deficits to the Iran deal, gas pipelines, car tariffs and migration, Germany and the current U.S. administration are at permanent odds. In the face of the U.S. leader’s habit of singling out Germany for “owing billions” in defense spending, the chancellor has laid out a target of raising the military budget to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product by the middle of the next decade—still well short of the 2 percent threshold set at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales. That’s recognition of the vacuum of political support in Germany for a defense increase of vast proportions. “We have to be honest,” Merkel said in June. That tack is unlikely to impress Trump. Worse still, he has conflated defense spending with trade, meaning that Merkel is a double target. Add the Trump administration’s determination to have the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Russia canceled, and the chancellor will feel lucky to survive the summit unscathed.
Spending Promise
Only five NATO members met the 2 percent goal in 2017
0
1
2
3
4%
U.S.
Greece
U.K.
Estonia
Poland
Romania
France
Latvia
Lithuania
Norway
Montenegro
Bulgaria
Turkey
Portugal
Canada
Croatia
Germany
Slovakia
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
Albania
Hungary
Czech Rep.
Slovenia
Spain
Belgium
Luxembourg
0
1
2
3
4%
0
1
2%
Canada
U.S.
Croatia
Greece
Germany
U.K.
Slovakia
Estonia
Denmark
Poland
Netherlands
Romania
Italy
France
Albania
Latvia
Hungary
Lithuania
Czech Rep.
Norway
Slovenia
Montenegro
Spain
Bulgaria
Belgium
Turkey
Luxembourg
Portugal
Canada
1.3
U.S.
3.6
Finland
Norway
1.6
Russia
Sweden
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Denmark
Belarus
Ireland
U.K.
2.1
Netherlands
Poland
2
Germany
1.2
Ukraine
Belgium
Lux.
Czech Rep.
Slovakia
Austria
Hungary
Romania
1.8
Switz.
France
1.8
Slovenia
Black Sea
Croatia
Serbia
Bulgaria
Italy
1.1
Montenegro
Portugal
1.3
Albania
Spain
0.9
Turkey
1.5
Greece
2.4
Spending, share of GDP
Total spend
Military personnel
▶3.6%
$686B
U.S.
1.3M
▶1.5%
$250B
NATO Europe
1.8M
Source: North Atlantic Treaty Organization Annual Report
U.K.: Keeping Its Head Down
2.12% $55.2B 🚹161K
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Another attack in London by a loser terrorist.These are sick and demented people who were in the sights of Scotland Yard. Must be proactive!
11:42 AM - 15 Sep 2017
Theresa May has reportedly questioned whether Britain should remain a Tier One military power and has ruled out any significant rise in military spending—her priority is to channel what money there is to spare in Brexit Britain on things like healthcare that can make her more popular at home. The Americans are not happy, even though the U.K. is among the few that actually meets the 2 percent spending goal. In a leaked letter, Defense Secretary James Mattis warned France could overtake the U.K. as Washington’s closest European military ally. That is quite a slap in the face to the U.K. and the much-vaunted “special relationship’’ with the U.S. Trump is coming to the U.K. right after NATO and for May it is paramount that trip goes smoothly so as not to sour the relationship further. She’ll want to keep protests at bay and butter him up with a view to influencing the president’s approach to Russia ahead of his one-to-one with Putin. That is no simple task, even assuming she makes it through her current cabinet crisis.
France: Friendship Won’t Get You Much
1.79% $45.9B 🚹209K
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
A perfectly executed strike last night. Thank you to France and the United Kingdom for their wisdom and the power of their fine Military. Could not have had a better result. Mission Accomplished!
1:21 PM - 14 Apr 2018
France spends just under the 2 percent mark on defense and has managed to avoid Trump’s wrath, largely because it’s successfully made the case that with joint efforts against Islamic groups from the Sahara to Iraq, it is now the U.S.’s closest military ally. Emmanuel Macron has had public spats with Trump over climate change, the Iran nuclear accord and trade, yet by the standards of the president’s relations with other European countries they are almost best of friends. From the start, Macron adopted a pragmatic approach to Trump, arguing that France has no choice but to work with the U.S. and emphasizing that they both come from outside traditional politics. Plus, Trump so enjoyed his time at last year’s Bastille Day military parade that he rewarded Macron with a state visit to the White House. Yet Macron’s popularity in France is low, and many question what he’s gotten out of his chumminess with Trump given that the president has continued to tear up international treaties and norms.
Eastern Europe: View From the Frontline
1.48% $4.1B 🚹306K
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Today, it was my honor to welcome Estonia President@KerstiKaljulaid, Lithuania President @Grybauskaite_LT, and Latvia President @Vejonis to the @WhiteHouse. Congratulations on your 100th anniversaries of independence! #BalticSummit:45.wh.gov/RtVRmD
8:15 PM 3 APR 2018
Donald Trump’s wavering commitment to NATO after he became president rattled the frontline states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Since then, they’ve ensured their military spending meets the alliance’s 2 percent goal, in some cases even exceeding it. Once unwilling members of the Soviet Union, the three Baltic nations all share borders with Russia and are home to the kind of ethnic-Russian communities Putin has vowed to protect. The first example of that pledge in action was his annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, where he claimed violent nationalists were set to rampage. The subsequent Kremlin-backed conflict in Ukraine, which continues to simmer, prompted NATO to boost foreign-troop contingents in the Baltic region to deter Russian meddling. With analysts predicting Russian forces could reach Tallinn and Riga in 60 hours, that’s a welcome development. But some ex-communist members want more: Poland has proposed a permanent U.S. base on its territory, offering as much as $2 billion to make it happen. These countries are likely to be exceedingly wary of whatever reassurances Trump might offer Putin in Helsinki.
Turkey: Could be a Meeting of Minds
1.48% $12.1B 🚹387K
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Will be speaking to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey this morning about bringing peace to the mess that I inherited in the Middle East. I will get it all done, but what a mistake, in lives and dollars (6 trillion), to be there in the first place!
12:04 PM 24 Nov 2017
One kindred spirit among the NATO allies will be Recep Tayyip Erdogan, re-elected last month with the kind of unfettered powers a U.S. president could only dream of. Last time they met, in September, Trump said “we are as close as we’ve ever been.” And a lot of that has to do with the personal relationship.’’ But personal chemistry may be the only thing going well. Turkey is buying S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia that are incompatible with NATO systems; it has arrested U.S. citizens as terrorists, including a pastor and U.S. consulate employees. The U.S., meanwhile, is allied with Kurdish troops Turkey is fighting against in Syria, and refuses to extradite the man Erdogan accuses of leading a failed 2016 coup attempt against him. Trump’s trying to smooth it all over. After the U.S. Senate voted to punish Ankara by removing it from the F-35 joint strike fighter project, he pledged to ensure deliveries continue, according to Turkey’s foreign minister. If he can’t, Trump and Erdogan will at least have budding relationships with Putin.
Who Else Could Get Targeted?
NATO comprises 29 countries and Trump sent letters to most of his fellow leaders, chiding many for their paltry military budgets. Among them: Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Canada and Luxembourg. Norway, Trump wrote, “remains the only NATO ally sharing a border with Russia that lacks a credible plan to spend 2 percent’’ on defense. Italy’s premier, Giuseppe Conte, pleaded that his country’s contributions shouldn’t be “measured just in economic terms.’’ With defense spending of some 1.7 percent, it’s fair to assume NATO’s 29th member, Montenegro, received a missive. Still, after he was shoved to one side by Trump at last year’s alliance gathering, the tiny Balkan country’s prime minister might just be content to get out the way.