Prime Minister Theresa May’s move to call a surprise election to shore up her thin parliamentary majority going into Brexit negotiations has backfired spectacularly. With 649 of 650 constituencies counted, her Conservative Party dropped 12 seats—and lost its majority in the House of Commons. May still intends to form a government with the help of Northern Ireland’s pro-Brexit Democratic Unionist Party. Together, they’ll have 327 seats, one more than needed.
The Conservatives lost seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats
27
Con
32
Lab
6
2
12
SNP
20
Con
5
2
Lab
5
5
LD
2
LD
4
27
Conservative
32
Labour
6
2
20
SNP
12
Conservative
5
2
5
Labour
5
Lib Dems
Lib Dems
2
4
Graphic excludes seats won or lost to other smaller parties
Source: Press Association
The Conservatives flipped just five Labour seats; Jeremy Corbyn’s party outperformed expectations, winning 27 Tory-held constituencies. The biggest loser, though, was the Scottish National Party, which gave up 19 of its 54 seats. Of those, 12 went to the Tories. In all, 71 seats switched hands on Thursday.
Theresa May missed out on Halifax, where she launched the Tory manifesto last month. It was her party’s fourth most-winnable Labour seat
May visited
Conservative
Win
Gain
Lost seat to
Labour
Lib Dem
Halifax
Conservative win
Conservative gain
Lost seat to
Labour
Lib Dem
May visited
Halifax
Sources: Bloomberg reporting, BBC
The biggest winner was Jeremy Corbyn and his Labour Party. While their 29-seat gain didn’t yield a majority, the result illustrated growing grassroots support and strong turnout among younger voters.
Labour victories generally tracked with where there's a larger population of young people
Population aged 18-30
Labour seats won 2017
Labour seat
Gain
5%
15
25
35
45+
Scotland
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Northern
Ireland
Wales
Wales
Population aged 18-30
5%
15
25
35
45+
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Wales
Labour seats won 2017
Labour seat
Gain
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Wales
Sources: ONS Mid-year population estimates for England and Wales 2015, Press Association
Turnout among voters in Labour-won seats was almost four percentage points higher on average than in 2015. In contrast, Tory-won seats showed just a 2-point average increase. As for the SNP, its 5-point turnout dip helps explain the party’s thumping.
Labour areas saw the greatest increase in voter turnout, while Scotland saw the lowest
Change in turnout, 2015 to 2017
2017 result
Lib Dem
SNP
Conservative
Labour
DUP
Sinn Fein
Plaid Cymru
Green
-8%
-4
0
4
8
12+
Other
2017 seat gain
Scotland
Scotland
Turnout in Scotland dropped considerably, leading to the SNP losing seats
Northern
Ireland
Northern
Ireland
Wales
Wales
Labour-won seats in London saw turnout rise 5.4 percentage points, netting the party three Conservative seats
Change in turnout,
2015 to 2017
-8%
-4
0
4
8
12+
Turnout in Scotland dropped considerably, leading to the SNP losing seats
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Wales
Labour-won seats in London saw turnout rise 5.4 points, netting the party three Conservative seats
2017 result
SNP
Conservative
Labour
DUP
Sinn Fein
Lib Dem
Plaid Cymru
Other
Green
2017 seat gain
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Wales
Source: Press Association
Theresa May’s newest MPs may have some discouraging words for her Brexit ambitious. Of the 20 seats that Tories newly occupy, 13 voted to remain in the European Union. Meanwhile, around half of Labour’s new seats voted to leave, underscoring a confused political situation.
Rather than Conservatives picking up pro-Brexit voters, the opposite happened
Gain
Labour
Conservative
80
70
60
50%
60
70
80
↑ Leave
↓ Remain
Turnout 2017 →
55
60
65
70
75
80%
Labour gain
Conservative gain
80
70
60
50%
60
70
80
↑ Voted to leave the EU
↓ Voted to remain
Turnout →
50
55
60
65
70
75
80%
Sources: Press Association, Brexit vote estimate from Chris Hanretty of UEA
So what will history remember about this election—beyond May’s epic miscalculation? It’s the first time since 1997 that Conservatives have lost seats and the first decline ever for the SNP. More important is whether Thursday’s result leads to a pair of course corrections over independence: if the U.K. takes a more conciliatory approach to Brexit and if Scotland shelves a second independence referendum.
Net change in House of Commons seats over time
This is the first time Conservatives will actually lose seats since Blair's landslide in 1997
Conservative
Labour
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
’87
’97
’83
’92
’01
’05
’10
’15
’17
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
SNP
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
1987
1997
1983
1992
2001
2005
2010
2015
2017
This is the first time Conservatives will actually lose seats since Blair's landslide in 1997
Lib Dems refers to Liberal/SDP in 1983 and 1987
Sources: House of Commons, Electoral Commission