A Le Pen Win Would Be Dangerous for Putin and Russia’s Economy

Far-right French presidential contender Marine Le Pen’s party has received financing from a Russian bank and gets positive coverage in Russia’s state-run media. Does that mean the Kremlin actually wants to see her elected? Not necessarily: Le Pen’s promise to take France out of the euro zone — which could break up the European single currency — might well devastate Russia’s economy and financial stability.

Foreign Currency Reserves

Russia holds close to 40 percent of its foreign currency reserves in euros. President Vladimir Putin said in September in a Bloomberg interview that this means his country is “not interested in the collapse of the euro zone.”

European Investments

Russia has also invested tens of billions of euros in Europe in sectors ranging from telecommunications to energy and services.

Commercial Partners

The 28-member European Union remains by far Russia’s largest commercial partner despite a contraction in trade in recent years after the longest Russian recession in two decades and sanctions imposed because of the Ukraine conflict. Russia’s exports to the euro zone ($91 billion) are almost four times what it sells to China and nearly 11 times the amount of Russian imports in the U.S.

Foreign Investments

Russia relies on the 19-nation euro zone for 70 percent of foreign direct investment, led by inflows from Cyprus, Luxembourg and Netherlands, which are a conduit for Russian money.

Russia appears most concerned to shore up support for former Prime Minister Francois Fillon, a pro-Kremlin figure who's been hit by a family finance scandal. His presidential rival Emmanuel Macron this week accused Russia of meddling in the French election by putting out fake news through its media outlets.